Every game matters. It matters even more when you’re in the thick of the playoff race. You heard me last week say that the line to get into the playoffs was likely going to be 9-9. That magic number was under the assumption that at least some of the teams at 8-8 would win this past weekend and that would push the line up. Of the three 8-8 teams that played this past weekend, all three lost.
We are now down to 256 scenarios which makes deciphering what will happen a little easier, but just a little. Because so many games will all be happening at the same time on Saturday, I have created a spreadsheet that you can follow along left to right, which has each of the 256 scenarios and the result that happens with each combination of results.
Editors Note: We have included the spreadsheet below in small form, but have created a seperate landing page to view the entire sheet. Check that out here.
We know four things with certainty. Buffalo will be the #1 seed after defeating Halifax, and that same win also secured the #2 seed for Saskatchewan. We also know that both Vegas and Toronto are eliminated.
Philadelphia is ultra close to being eliminated, but not completely. If you recall last year, Rochester needed to win in the final week and four other teams needed to lose for them to make the playoffs. A 3.1% chance that ended up happening. Philadelphia has it even tougher, the need to win and five other teams need to lose. But keep in mind, they’ve been in a situation of lose and they’re out the last two weeks and they’ve continued to stay alive.
And before we get into all the scenarios, a big thank you to the league for introducing the multi-game view. Its been very common in the past where you needed a TV, a few laptops and your phone to follow all of the games occurring at the same time. The multi-game view allowed us to watch all four games happening at the same time on one screen and select which game’s play by play you wanted to listen to. The only fault on it was that it didn’t work on my phone, but it was a nice treat to make viewing much easier.
With that in mind, let’s go through the ten teams’ scenarios that haven’t been fully decided as of yet.
Halifax Thunderbirds (10-7)
The Thunderbirds missed the opportunity to secure a home playoff team, and even the possibility of the #1 overall seed in their loss to Buffalo this weekend. They can still finish between 3rd and 6th place. Halifax has most, but not all tiebreaks with the teams around them.
- Finish 3rd (59.4% chance) with:
- a win; OR
- if they, Rochester and Vancouver all lose, and Calgary loses at least once
- Finish 4th (18.8% chance) with a loss, one of Vancouver or Rochester wins, Calgary loses at least once.
- Finish 5th (12.5% chance) with a loss and either:
- Rochester and Vancouver win, Calgary loses at least once; OR
- Rochester wins, Vancouver loses, Calgary wins twice.
- Finishes 6th (9.4% chance) with:
- They lose, Rochester loses, and Calgary wins twice (Vancouver result irrelevant); OR
- They lose, Rochester and Vancouver win, Calgary wins twice.
Halifax’s final game is against Toronto, who has nothing but pride to play for. It’s the ultimate opportunity to secure that home game. But never take an opponent who is playing for pride lightly.
Vancouver Warriors (10-7)
Vancouver is the team in the pack that bucked the trend of losing. This secured them not only a playoff spot, but getting a home playoff game is under their control. They play Philadelphia who has won their last two games, but may or may not have something to play for by the time the game starts. Calgary or Albany may have smashed the Wings’ hopes before the game starts. Vancouver can finish as high as 3rd and as low as 6th.
- Finish 3rd (28.1% chance) with:
- A win and a Halifax loss; OR
- Vancouver, Halifax and Rochester all lose and Calgary wins twice.
- Finish 4th (46.9% chance) with:
- A win and a Halifax win; OR
- A Halifax win and a Rochester loss; OR
- Vancouver, Halifax and Rochester all lose and Calgary loses at least once.
- Finish 5th (21.9% chance) with:
- A loss and Halifax and Rochester win; or
- A loss, a Halifax loss, a Rochester win and Calgary loses at least once.
- Finish 6th (3.1% chance) with a loss, a Halifax loss, a Rochester win and Calgary wins twice.
One note, Rogers Arena has never hosted an NLL playoff game with the Warriors or the Ravens. No Vancouver team has won a playoff game in the 14 seasons the Ravens/Stealth/Warriors have played in the greater Vancouver area.
Rochester Knighthawks (10-7)
Rochester had a late bye week after having played the first ten weeks of the season without a bye week. They enter the final week with very few tiebreakers, so in most instances they need to get ahead of the teams they’re battling for position for. But the winners of their last 6 games get Toronto on the back half of a double header weekend for the Rock. Rochester has a lower chance of finishing 3rd than the other 10-7 teams, but can’t finish lower than 5th.
- Finish 3rd (12.5% chance) with a win and Halifax and Vancouver both lose.
- Finish 4th (31.3% chance) with:
- A win, a Halifax win and a Vancouver loss; OR
- A win, a Vancouver win and a Halifax loss; OR
- A loss, a Halifax loss and two Calgary wins (Vancouver result irrelevant)
- Finish 5th (56.3% chance) with:
- A Halifax win and a Vancouver win; OR
- A Halifax win, a Rochester loss and a Vancouver loss; OR
- A loss, a Halifax loss and Calgary loses Calgary loses at least once.
Calgary Roughnecks (8-8)
A few weeks ago, Calgary was behind the entire 8-win pack. Now they’re a half game ahead of the pack with every other 8-win team losing this weekend and Calgary having a bye week. Its not a fun final weekend for them, in Vegas on Friday night and at home against Colorado on Saturday. Not only do the Roughnecks miss out on enjoying Vegas, they go into a critical game against Colorado tired and coming off a morning flight.
There’s a lot more scenarios with Calgary because they have two games. But their odds of making the playoffs are that much greater because they have two games remaining. Calgary can finish anywhere from 4th place to out of the playoffs. They are the only team outside of the ten-win teams that can finish 4th.
Here the simplest version available for Calgary to make the playoffs.
Calgary makes the playoffs with:
- A win vs. Colorado; OR
- A win vs. Las Vegas; AND
- San Diego loses; OR
- Ottawa and Georgia lose; OR
- Lose both games, Ottawa loses AND two of San Diego, Philly or Georgia lose.
As for the positioning scenarios:
- Calgary finishes 4th (3.1% chance) and a home playoff game with two wins, Halifax and Vancouver lose, Rochester wins.
- Calgary finishes 5th (9.4% chance) with two wins; AND
- Toronto wins twice; OR
- Toronto defeats Halifax but loses to Rochester, Vancouver wins.
- Calgary finishes 6th (28.1% chance) with:
- Two wins, Halifax wins; OR
- Lose to Vegas but defeat Colorado, Halifax and Albany win; OR
- Lose to Vegas but defeat Colorado, Halifax and San Diego lose; OR
- Lose to Vegas but defeat Colorado, San Diego, Georgia and Ottawa win, Rochester loses.
- Calgary finishes 7th (20.3% chance) with:
- Defeat Vegas but lose to Colorado, San Diego, Georgia and Ottawa all lose; OR
- Defeat Vegas but lose to Colorado, Albany and Georgia win; OR
- Lose both games, San Diego, Georgia, Philly and Ottawa all lose; OR
- Lose to Vegas but defeat Colorado, San Diego wins, Georgia loses; OR
- Lose to Vegas but defeat Colorado, San Diego and Georgia win and Ottawa loses.
- Calgary finishes 8th (10.9% chance) with:
- Defeat Vegas but lose to Colorado, San Diego and Georgia lose, Ottawa wins; OR
- Defeat Vegas but lose to Colorado, Georgia and Ottawa lose, San Diego wins; OR
- Lose both games, Ottawa loses and two of Albany, Georgia and Philly lose.
Or if that melts your brain, just go to the spreadsheet.
Georgia Swarm (8-9)
If there’s any team you could call the ultimate inconsistent team this year, its Georgia. They fly out of the gate, go on a losing streak, and then bounce back and forth between winning and losing streaks. They’ve looked really bad in two losses to the Wings the last two weeks, but that almost means they’re due for a win against Buffalo, who I won’t be surprised rest some bodies ahead of the playoffs.
There is a simple version for Georgia making the playoffs:
- Georgia is in the playoffs (46.9% chance) with a win; EXCEPT IF
- Calgary defeats Vegas but loses to Colorado, Albany and Ottawa win.
For those looking for the more complex version:
- Georgia finishes 6th (9.4% chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary loses twice, San Diego and Colorado win; OR
- Calgary loses to Vegas but defeats Colorado, San Diego wins, Ottawa loses
- Georgia finishes 7th (28.1% chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary defeats Vegas, San Diego wins; OR
- Calgary defeats Colorado, San Diego and Ottawa lose; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, Albany and Colorado win; OR
- Calgary loses to Vegas but defeats Colorado, San Diego and Ottawa win.
- Georgia finishes 8th (9.4% chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary defeats Colorado, Albany and Ottawa win; OR
- Calgary defeats Vegas but loses to Colorado, Albany wins, Ottawa loses.
San Diego Seals (8-9)
For those that want the really simple explanation on San Diego, here it is. If they win this weekend at home against Albany, they’re in the playoffs. If they lose, they’re out.
For those that want the details as to how San Diego finishes 6th, 7th or 8th, see below:
- Finishes 6th (21.9% chance) with a win; AND
- If Calgary defeats Vegas;
- Georgia loses, Colorado wins; OR
- Georgia, Colorado and Ottawa all win.
- If Vegas defeats Calgary and Georgia loses.
- If Calgary defeats Vegas;
- Finishes 7th (12.5% chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary defeats Vegas, Georgia and Colorado win; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, Georgia and Colorado lose
- Finishes 8th (15.65 chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary wins twice, Georgia wins; OR
- Calgary defeats Vegas, Georgia and Colorado win, Ottawa loses; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, Calgary defeats Colorado, Georgia wins.
Ottawa Black Bears (8-9)
Ottawa’s situation is a little more complex for a reason. They have a lot of tiebreaks in a 8-10 situation where 8-10 is good enough to get in. They also don’t have a lot of tiebreak situations with 9-9 situations. Therefore, Ottawa can get into the playoffs with a loss and miss the playoffs with a win.
Here’s the not so simple methods for Ottawa to make/miss the playoffs:
Ottawa makes the playoffs (59.4% chance) except if the following happen:
- They lose, Georgia loses, Colorado wins; OR
- Calgary defeats Vegas, San Diego and Georgia win (regardless if Ottawa wins or loses); OR
- They lose, Vegas defeats Calgary, Georgia and Colorado win; OR
- Calgary loses to Vegas but defeats Colorado, San Diego and Georgia win (regardless if Ottawa wins or loses).
As for the more complex version:
- Ottawa finishes 6th (6.3% chance) with a win, Vegas, Albany and Colorado all win.
- Ottawa finishes 7th (18.8% chance) with:
- They win, Calgary defeats Vegas, Albany wins, Georgia loses; OR
- They win, Calgary wins twice, Albany and Georgia win; OR
- Ottawa finishes 8th (34.4% chance) with:
- A loss, an Albany win, Calgary defeats Colorado; OR
- A win, Calgary defeats Vegas but loses to Colorado, Albany wins; OR
- A win, Calgary defeats Vegas but loses to Colorado, Albany and Georgia lose; OR
- San Diego wins, Calgary defeats Colorado, Georgia loses (regardless if they win or lose); OR
- A win, Calgary loses twice, San Diego and Georgia win.
Colorado Mammoth (8-9)
Colorado’s offensive struggles shouldn’t be a surprise given how many players are out. Once 8-4 and almost certain to be in the playoffs, they’ve now lost five in a row. Here’s the simple form for Colorado.
- They are in the playoffs (46.9% chance) with a win; EXCEPT IF
- Vegas, San Diego, Georgia and Ottawa all win.
If you want the complex version for Colorado, here you go:
- Finish 6th (21.9% chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary defeats Vegas, Albany wins; OR
- Calgary defeats Vegas, San Diego and Georgia win, Ottawa loses; OR
- Calgary loses to Vegas, Albany wins, Ottawa loses.
- Finish 7th (12.5% chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary defeats Vegas, San Diego wins, Georgia loses; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, Albany and Ottawa win, Georgia loses; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, San Diego wins, Georgia and Ottawa lose.
- Finish 8th (12.5% chance) with a win; AND
- Calgary defeats Vegas, San Diego, Georgia and Ottawa all win; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, Albany, Georgia and Ottawa all win; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, San Diego and Ottawa win, Georgia loses; OR
- Vegas defeats Calgary, San Diego and Georgia win, Ottawa loses.
Albany FireWolves (7-10)
The FireWolves are 23.4% to make the playoffs compared to the Wings 1.6% with the same record. If the FireWolves can make the playoffs, having to win 6 of their last 7 to get there, it will be one of the biggest comebacks in league history.
Because of all the 8-win teams losing, Albany even has a shot at 7th place. If Georgia wins, Albany’s paths to getting into the playoffs become very slim. Of the 128 scenarios where Georgia wins, Albany makes the playoffs in just two of them.
Let’s start with the simple version for Albany. To make the playoffs, Albany must
- Win against San Diego; AND
- Hope that Georgia loses, with the exception of Georgia winning, Calgary losing twice, Philly winning and Ottawa losing (the 2 of 128 scenario); AND
- They avoid the scenario where Calgary defeats Vegas, Georgia loses, Colorado and Ottawa win.
As for the more complex version:
- Finish 7th (7.8% chance) with a win AND:
- Calgary wins twice, Georgia and Ottawa lose; OR
- Calgary loses to Vegas, Georgia, Ottawa and Vancouver all lose; OR
- Calgary loses to Vegas but defeats Colorado, Philly, Georgia and Ottawa all lose.
- Finish 8th (15.6% chance) with a win AND:
- IF Calgary defeats Vegas;
- Calgary wins twice, Ottawa wins, Georgia loses; OR
- Colorado defeats Calgary, Georgia and Ottawa lose; OR
- If Vegas defeats Calgary;
- Georgia loses, Ottawa wins; OR
- Calgary loses twice, Georgia, Philly and Ottawa all lose; OR
- Georgia wins, Calgary loses twice, Philly wins, Ottawa loses
- IF Calgary defeats Vegas;
Philadelphia Wings (7-10)
After losing 8 in a row, we would have thought the Wings were done a few weeks ago, especially playing Georgia twice. Now they’ve won both of those games and a number of 8-win teams have lost which still gives the Wings a very narrow path. As I said before, it’s a 1.6% chance to make it. They have to defeat Vancouver in Vancouver, and five other teams have to lose. The reason its so narrow is that the Wings don’t have the greatest of tiebreakers, but there’s one specific group of teams that if they’re all at 8-10 and 8-10 is good enough for 8th place, the Wings have a good enough head-to-head win percentage against the group to sneak into 8th place.
For Philadelphia to finish 8th, they must defeat Vancouver AND:
- Calgary loses both games; AND
- Albany, Georgia and Ottawa all must lose.
Because Calgary plays Vegas and Albany plays San Diego before the Wings take to the floor, their fate might be sealed before they take to the floor, or, they might have a ton of motivation if both results go their way. On the flipside, a Wings’ loss guarantees that the Rock have the first three picks of September’s draft (unless they make trades).
The Group of Death?
Every major soccer tournament, analysts look to dub one of the groups the “group of death.” Effectively, it’s the toughest group to get out of to make the playoffs.
Because there is no reseeding in the second round of the playoffs, we have a left hand side and right hand side of the playoff bracket. But based on recent results, one of the sides of the playoff bracket might be considerably tougher than the other. Effectively, a group of death.
One side of the draw involves the 1, 4, 5 and 8 seeds. Based on the odds, those four teams stand to be Buffalo, the top team in the league, Vancouver who has won five straight, Rochester who has won six straight, and one of Albany who has won six of seven to get in, or Ottawa. That’s a rough go for those teams.
The other side stands to be Saskatchewan, Halifax and two of Calgary, Colorado, San Diego and Georgia. All of these teams have had inconsistent results lately.
We shouldn’t assume that anything is going to happen according to plan after the last several weeks, but if it finally does, you could have a side of the bracket full of teams none of the other teams on that side want to see in either the first or second round.
Until next time…