Last week we had 67 million playoff scenarios to deal with. Today we’re down to 2,097,152 possibilities. How do we know that? There are 21 games remaining in the season, each with 2 possible outcomes. Punch 2^21 into your calculator and you get the answer.
But the more we get into the stretch, the more that a single upset can change things dramatically. Vancouver’s surprise win over Buffalo not only catapults their odds of making the playoffs, but reignites the battle for first between Buffalo and Saskatchewan.Â
The Christian Del Biano effect in Vancouver has been astounding. Its not just a goaltending thing. It makes the defence more confident. It makes the transition game that much more deadly. And it has given their offence the confidence boost they needed.
Rochester’s win over San Diego is also a game changer. If Rochester loses that game, they’re in a pack at 8-8 with one fewer game than everyone to get the wins needed to make the playoffs and San Diego is in the driver’s seat for a spot. Now San Diego has an interesting situation where they finish with two games against Albany, where an Albany sweep could give us a turn of events where the FireWolves are in the playoffs and the Seals aren’t.
And then there was Halifax who turned two goals in the last 30 seconds into an OT thriller, but Andrew Kew, who is now starting to turn into an OT goal scoring machine, changes things significantly. Had Halifax won, they would have been pretty much in the playoffs and still in the fight for 1st place overall. Now they’re a long shot for 1st overall and they’re just one game ahead of the pack that’s on the line for a playoff spot.Â
If Georgia lost in OT, they would have fallen to 10th overall.
And then there’s Saskatchewan, who made a statement after a terrible performance in Halifax and put Colorado down 10-1 fast. It was one of those strange games where you had two sock tricks and almost a third. The Rush took their foot off the gas, but the big lead meant it didn’t matter. Now the Rush have a home playoff game for the first time since a first round exit in 2019.
Note: if you prefer the statistical scenarios, check out this tweet.
Updated playoff percentages:
— Graeme Perrow (@GraemePerrow) April 2, 2025
ALB 7.5%
CAL 38%
COL: 82%
GEO: 75.9%
HFX: 96.5%
OTT 32.4%
PHI 0.37%
ROC: 97.7%
SD 84%
TOR: 2.39%
VAN: 83.2%
So where does this leave us now?
Top of the List
Buffalo Bandits
The Bandits loss to Vancouver puts them in a precarious position now. When the defeated Saskatchewan a month ago, 1st place seemed all but secured. Now they’re in a 1st place tie with Saskatchewan and only have the tiebreak to fall back upon now. Good news for the Bandits, Halifax also lost and that relieves a little pressure. Buffalo hasn’t secured a home playoff game yet, but are 99.5% to get one. Buffalo’s scenarios are:
- Have qualified for the playoffs
- Will secure a home playoff game with a win
- Will secure at least the #2 seed with a win this weekend plus a Halifax loss, or, if they beat Halifax in week 20.
- Will secure the #1 seed with:
- 3 wins to finish out the season
- 2 wins & Saskatchewan loses at least once.
- They beat Halifax in week 20, lose the other two games & Saskatchewan loses twice.
- They go 1-2 down the stretch Saskatchewan loses twice, Halifax loses once
- Both Buffalo and Saskatchewan lose all 3 remaining games, Halifax loses to San Diego and Toronto, Colorado loses to Calgary, Georgia loses at least once to Philly, Vancouver loses at least once.
- Will be the #2 seed with:
- Losing once and Saskatchewan winning out.
- Defeating Halifax in week 20, losing both other games, and the Rush win at least twice.
- Losing twice, Halifax loses at least once, Saskatchewan wins at least twice.
- A number of strange scenarios if they lose all three and the tiebreaks go their way. Far too many intricacies to list here.
Saskatchewan Rush
The Rush’s win over Colorado simplified things a lot when it comes to the Rush, and with a number of results this weekend, they secured a home playoff game. The Rush could be caught if they lose all three of their games, but their tiebreaker scenarios are excellent. If you look at the 7-loss teams, they have the tiebreak on Rochester, Georgia, Vancouver and San Diego, and in this scenario, Colorado would be a split. There isn’t a scenario where the Rush lose all their remaining games, Colorado and one other 7-loss team wins out, and the Rush fall to 5th.
Also important this past weekend, Halifax losing to Georgia means that if the Rush and Thunderbirds are in a two-way tie for a playoff spot, the Rush have the tiebreak on common wins. Had Halifax won that game and the one against Buffalo, head-to-head goal differential could have come into play. The Rush’s scenarios are:
- Guaranteed a home playoff game
- Will be at least the #2 seed with two wins or one win and any Halifax loss
- Will be the #1 seed with:
- 3 wins and any Buffalo loss
- 2 wins and Buffalo loses twice
- One win, Buffalo loses three times, Halifax loses once.
- Will be the #2 seed with:
- Both they and Buffalo win out
- Two wins and Buffalo wins at least twice
- One win, Buffalo wins at least once, any Halifax loss
- One win, Halifax wins out, Buffalo wins their other two games.
- There are scenarios where they could finish 2nd by losing all three remaining games, but there’s too many to go through in this article.
- Its difficult for the Rush to fall lower than 3rd. The 4th place scenarios involve the Rush losing out, Colorado winning out, none of the other 7 loss teams winning out and Halifax finishing ahead of them.
Halifax Thunderbirds
According to Graeme Perrow, who’s database can evaluate odds much faster than any brain possibly could, Halifax is 96.5% to make the playoffs. I began the search for the scenarios where Halifax doesn’t make the playoffs, and they’re interesting, but possible.
Halifax misses the playoffs if:
- They win once, but all of Colorado, Rochester, Vancouver, San Diego, Georgia and Calgary also get to 10 wins, but Ottawa doesn’t or;
- Halifax loses out and a number of teams get to 9 or 10 wins. Even then, it has to be the right combination of teams at 9 wins and 10 wins for Halifax to be out.
Other things that are certain for Halifax:
- Two wins guarantees they are in the playoffs
- They will have a home playoff game with:
- Three wins; or
- Two wins and San Diego or Colorado lose at least once; or
- A few methods with just one win. Most helpful if that one win comes against San Diego.
- Will be the #1 seed with:
- 3 wins and Buffalo and Saskatchewan lose out; or
- 3 wins and Buffalo wins once, Saskatchewan wins no more than once
- Halifax wins twice, Buffalo and Saskatchewan lose out, Colorado loses to Calgary and either no 8-win teams win out or Vancouver is the only one to win out.
- Will be the #2 seed with:
- They win out, Saskatchewan loses no more than once, Buffalo loses twice; or
- They win twice, Saskatchewan and Buffalo lose out, Colorado beats Calgary
Rochester Knighthawks
Rochester’s scenarios are much easier because you’re only dealing with an 11-7, 10-8 or 9-9 record. If they win both remaining games, they’re in and in good shape for a home playoff game. In the rare multi-team 10-8 scenario, Rochester is in the playoffs in most scenarios and even has a home playoff game in several of them. I really had to play with the scenarios to find where a 10-8 Rochester misses the playoffs, and it came down to situations where Colorado and Vancouver and a combination of other teams were all in the pack at 10-8, plus Georgia and San Diego win out. Mathematically possible, but unlikely. According to Graeme Perrow, they are 97.7% to make the playoffs and 41.3% to host a home playoff game.
Rochester is in the playoffs if:
- They win both remaining games; or
- They win one remaining game and avoid a situation where 6 or more other teams reach at least 10 wins
- There are other situations where they are in with a 10-8 record with 7 or 8 other teams or at 9-9, but too numerous to mention here.
This weekend, Rochester is in for certain with a win and a Calgary loss.
As for a home playoff game, there are far more possibilities because the four 8-7 teams behind Rochester have an extra game to play to catch up to them. Rochester can’t be a top 2 team however because even if they win out and Saskatchewan or Buffalo lose out, both the Rush and Bandits are 2-0 head-to-head against the Knighthawks.
Bottom of the List
The bottom of the list hasn’t changed much with Albany and Toronto having bye weeks and Philly losing yet again, this time 13-5 to Ottawa. None of these teams could be eliminated last week, but this week is a different story.
Philadelphia Wings
The math is really simple for the Wings. They must win every game, at least one of the 8-win teams has to lose out, and tiebreaks have to go their way. That sounds tough, especially for a team that has lost 8 in a row. But if they can somehow do it, its possible, because they play Georgia twice and Vancouver once. If this were to happen, they have the tiebreak on Georgia, Vancouver and Calgary. Georgia is the easiest way in because they play the Wings twice and Buffalo. Oddly enough, there are a few scenarios where the Wings finish in 6th place, but their odds of making the playoffs are 0.37%.
Philadelphia is eliminated from the playoffs if:
- They lose any of their remaining games; or
- All off the 8-win teams win at least once; or
- There are more teams currently with 7 or less wins that reach 9 wins than 8 win-teams that lose out; or
- They aren’t joined by at least one of Georgia or Vancouver in the multi-team 8-10 record tiebreak.
Even if all that goes Philly’s way, it still might not be enough depending upon who else is in the tiebreak, but Georgia or Vancouver in the tiebreak would help them tremendously.
Toronto Rock
The Rock’s odds of making the playoffs are better than the Wings at 2.39% simply because they’re the only team in the league that has 4 games remaining (Rochester is the only team with 2 remaining). If Toronto can go on a 4-game winning streak, their odds of making the playoffs are decent, but there’s only a 6.25% chance they win all 4 games. If they win 3 of 4, its not impossible for them to get in at 8-10, but its really difficult. They would be in that same situation where one or more 8-win teams have to lose out and the right teams are in the tiebreaker.
Toronto has the tiebreak on Colorado, Calgary, Philly. They would have the tiebreak on Halifax and Rochester with wins, but those only apply in a tie at 9-9. With a win against Vancouver, they would have a split.
Toronto is eliminated with:
- Two losses in their remaining games; or
- One loss and both Vancouver and Colorado win any remaining game.
Even with the 8-10 and 9-9 scenarios where Colorado or Vancouver is involved in the tiebreak, that might not be enough for the Rock.
Albany FireWolves
Albany has perhaps the perfect schedule to end the season in order to make the playoffs when they’re behind. Their remaining schedule are all games against 8-7 teams. First up is Vancouver followed by an away and home against San Diego. Its two rough travel games, but they control their own fate better than most because they have the ability to hold those 8-win teams at 8 wins to allow them to catch up.
The bad news for Albany is their tiebreak situation. They don’t have the tiebreak on Calgary, Halifax, Rochester and Ottawa. They split with Colorado. They have the tiebreak on Georgia and have the chance to get it on Vancouver and San Diego. It actually helps Albany if Toronto or Philly join them in a tiebreak scenario. Its these tiebreaks as to why Albany’s odds of making the playoffs are just 7.5%.
If we’re looking at realities, the odds of Philly beating Georgia twice in a row are slim. When I start to look at 8-10 scenarios where Georgia and Toronto aren’t involved, things get dicey for the FireWolves fast. For example, an 8-10 tiebreak that involves San Diego, Calgary and Colorado gets the FireWolves in. There aren’t any reasonable options for the FireWolves to get in at 8-10 if San Diego wins any of their remaining games.
Albany is eliminated from the playoffs if:
- They lose two of their remaining games; or
- They lose one of their remaining games, and all the teams at 8 wins get to 9 wins; or
- They lose one of their remaining games and as many or more teams at 7 wins get to 9 wins than 8 win teams lose out from here on; or
- They lose once and at least two of Georgia, Colorado, Toronto, Philly and San Diego aren’t in a tiebreak for 8th place at 8-10
Beyond these, there are still possibilities that if Albany wins out, they still miss the playoffs due to tiebreaks or enough 10-8 teams.
The Pack
For the teams in the log jam at 8-7 and 7-8, I’m going to ignore their scenarios for now other than to say that the teams at 8-7 are guaranteed to be in the playoffs by winning all three remaining games. Also, if Calgary and Ottawa lose one game each down the stretch, 10-8 is guaranteed to be enough to make the playoffs.
One of the problems for the 7-8 teams (Calgary and Ottawa) is that none of the 8-7 teams play each other during the final stretch. Had two 8-7 teams played each other, that would have meant a guaranteed loss for one of them and a 7-8 team would be assured at least a tiebreak opportunity. But to expect every 8-7 team to go undefeated down the stretch is extremely unlikely.
Its far more critical for the 7-8 teams to get on win streaks, and especially, get wins against the 8-7 teams to not only drag them down the standings, but to gain tiebreakers on them. Vice-versa, its critical for the 8-7 teams to win those games to put distance between them and the 7-8 team. Instead, let’s look specifically at this week’s games and the consequences for each game.
The first game up is Calgary at Saskatchewan in the TSN game this week. For the Roughnecks, who have lost 4 of their last 5, a loss could start to put the playoffs out of reach. They won’t be out of the playoffs with a loss, but a loss means you’re at least one, possibly two games behind the pack with two games to go. A win however puts them likely even for the final one or two playoff spots as odds are at least one of Vancouver, San Diego, Georgia or Colorado lose this weekend.
Albany and Vancouver is a different story where both teams need wins to get into the post season. Albany is nearly out with a loss as too many things have to right for them with a loss, especially a Halifax win over San Diego. Vancouver, like every 8-win team, control their own destinies by winning out. A single loss and that control disappears.
Halifax vs San Diego is also a game with two teams that control their own destiny. A San Diego loss and they lose that control. A Halifax loss and they don’t lose that control, but they just went from a battle for first place to a battle for their playoff lives. If Halifax wants to be realistic about a top two finish, a win is needed. Even a home playoff game slowly becomes less likely with a loss.
With Ottawa and Rochester, as I said before Rochester has a bye week in week 20, so they need to win while they can. Ottawa can ill afford to lose when you’re one of the teams on the outside looking in, especially when a loss to Rochester means they can’t catch Rochester any longer. A win and they’re just a half game behind Rochester with a game in hand, and a split of the season series.
Georgia vs Philly comes down to simplicities. Georgia is probably in the best shape of any of the 8-win teams to make the playoffs when they play Philly twice down the stretch. Two wins and Georgia should be in, with a good chance of a home playoff game, especially if they can beat Buffalo in the final week. But a loss against Philly could be catastrophic for Georgia and whether 9-9 is good enough to get in at the end of the season.
Buffalo vs Colorado is simple enough. A win and Buffalo has a home playoff game and stay ahead for the #1 seed. Colorado seems to be the 8-win team that most people have the least faith in making the playoffs given how many forwards are out of the lineup. They have the toughest schedule down the stretch. They’ll need an upset to get themselves in a playoff position.
And then there’s Toronto vs Vegas, which is simply a case of Toronto staying alive or putting them on a thread to make the playoffs. Its possible for 8-10 to be not enough to make the playoffs by the time Toronto takes to the floor.
A week from now, we’ll be down to just 16,384 possible scenarios. Hopefully by then we can have more finite details of what each team needs to do. But enjoy the unified standings and the chaos it has caused.
Until next time…