We have four weeks to go in this NLL season. With the unified standings, we saw last year that we had playoff chaos. This year could very well be the same. With one less team, you would think by now that you could disregard four teams and you’re looking at ten. But Albany’s upset of Buffalo means you can’t completely write off the FireWolves, especially when they only have three games left and they just beat the toughest opponent they had remaining.
Dyson Williams SC Top 10 overtime winner is critical on several levels. A loss wouldn’t have eliminated the FireWolves, but a lot of things would have to go right for them to creep into the playoffs. Williams’ goal was literally a season saver, or at least a season extender.
Ice in his veins! 🥶🥶🥶
— NLL (@NLL) March 23, 2025
Dyson Williams' filthy behind-the-back game winner earned him the No. 7 Top Play on @SportsCenter!#SCTop10 pic.twitter.com/XoIIWcPZ2u
As for Buffalo, a win in Albany would have got them very close to securing a home playoff game and the #1 overall seed. They’re still in the driver’s seat for both, but now Saskatchewan and Halifax need Buffalo to lose two of their remaining games to open the door for the #1 seed, not three.
We’re going to see more of these with so many tight races where one goal at the right or wrong time can determine a team’s fate.
Draft Picks, What Draft Picks
Philadelphia’s losing streak has now extended to seven games. One fan on their Facebook fan page said that they should tank the season and get a good draft pick to rebuild. The only problem? Toronto has that draft pick. Toronto picked it up in the Mitch de Snoo and Chris Corbeil trade. This is an interesting pattern at the end of this season. If the season ended today, Toronto would have the first three draft picks this September. Talk about the ability to build for the future. It was actually beneficial for Toronto to beat Philly this weekend because it pushed the Wings further down the standings and improved Toronto’s draft picks. Even more impressive is they won with Tom Schreiber out of the lineup.
Albany also doesn’t have their first round pick. That belongs to Vegas. Ottawa doesn’t have their first round pick, that belongs to Halifax. Of all the teams below seven wins, only Toronto has their own draft pick. There certainly won’t be any tanking for draft position because there is no benefit.
Then there are those little things that could make a big difference in the end. Dillon Ward not being available changed Colorado’s fortunes on Sunday. Whether he will be available for the Mammoth’s game in Saskatchewan this coming weekend could also have a major effect one way or another. Halifax escaping against Ottawa puts them on the brink of making the playoffs and in the driver’s seat to get a home playoff game. If that result turns around, they’re in the pack of teams on the bubble and so is Ottawa. Ottawa isn’t out of the running, but if they win that game, they’re tied for the last playoff spot.
And then there’s Georgia who’s struggle might have flown under the radar. Remember, they started the season 4-0 and since had two three game losing streaks including the one they’re on right now. The loss to Vancouver was especially devastating though. It put them tied for the last few playoff spots and it brought Vancouver even with them, and without the tiebreak on the Warriors. They have a remaining schedule which has two of the top three teams in the standings and two games against the slumping Wings.
So where does this leave us?
The Magic Number
I wrote last week as to how a record of 9-9 was likely needed to make the playoffs, with an 8-10 record and a tiebreak possibly enough to make it. As more games are completed and the number of scenarios slowly decreases, you can start to produce the more likely scenarios to see where things line up.
A really helpful tool for this is the Could Happen feature on NLLStats.com where you can play out scenarios for the remaining games and see how the playoff picture would look like, including tiebreaks. But at the moment there are 67 million possibilities as to what could happen so we’re not breaking down 67 million scenarios. But what I did was take a starting point of plugging in the games I was 75% certain about and played around with the rest to see where the line was for making the playoffs.
The vast majority of the scenarios showed a similar pattern. The line was at 9-9, but it was a multi-way tie at 9-9 to get in, and one team at 9-9 would miss the playoffs. If you’re on that bubble, you need to pull some upsets off or get your tiebreakers right if you’re staring at a 9-9 record.
If you’re Albany, Philly or Toronto at 9 losses, you have to win your next four to get in or pray that the top-tier playoff teams go on winning streaks so the line drops to 8-10 for the mid-tier teams. Getting to 9-9 is exceedingly difficult given the schedules they had left, but I somewhat blew Albany off last week given that they played Buffalo this past weekend. Â
Let’s explore Albany for a minute. They still have to win out or hope that there’s a drop in the line to 8-10. They play in Vancouver followed by a home and away with San Diego. That’s in part what makes Albany’s situation even more difficult. Two of their games are on the west coast. The two longest road trips they have this season. Their tiebreak situation isn’t the greatest. If they win out, they have the tiebreak on Vancouver, San Diego and Georgia. They split with Colorado. They don’t have the tiebreak on Ottawa, Halifax, Calgary and Rochester. It would actually be helpful to Albany for Toronto or Philly to join them in the tiebreak. If Albany drops a game, that either doesn’t give them the tiebreak on Vancouver or it gives them a split with San Diego. Albany at 8-10 doesn’t have many good scenarios. They need 9-9 and the right teams to join them in the tiebreak or enough teams to drop to 8 wins.
The best bet for any of the bubble teams is to get to 10 wins. Then if things go to an extreme, I did find a few scenarios in which eight teams end up tied for the last three playoff spots with 8-10 records. Its unlikely to happen, but wouldn’t it be fun? Vice-versa, there is a scenario where nine teams finish at 10-8 and two of them miss the playoffs.
What We Know
There’s only three things that are certain. Buffalo and Saskatchewan are in the playoffs and Vegas is out. But Buffalo and Saskatchewan qualifying shouldn’t be a shock. We’re looking at home playoff game positioning for those two teams.
There’s a few other things that we can look at which tells us a story. First, let’s look at home playoff games and the top two seeds.
Buffalo’s split this weekend gets them really close to securing a home playoff game. Buffalo would secure a home playoff game this weekend with a win and either Colorado or San Diego losing. As for the #1 seed, the math is that Buffalo would have to lose two of their four remaining games and either Saskatchewan or Halifax would have to win out for Buffalo not to be the #1 seed. If Buffalo lose three of their final four games, then a lot more options open up for that #1 seed.
A win this weekend for Saskatchewan also puts them close to a home playoff game. Beating Colorado would put them on 11 wins. Because San Diego and Rochester play this weekend and that Rush win would be against Colorado, a Rush win means the 5th place team would be at 8 wins after this weekend, three games behind the Rush. That would mean the Rush would have to lose out and two teams currently at 8 wins or a 7-7 record would have to win out and Halifax would have to win two, possibly three of their remaining games for the Rush not to have a home playoff game. Its not mathematically impossible, but its exceedingly difficult for them to fall to fifth or lower.
If the Rush lose this weekend, it’s a different story because they’re still at 10 wins and the 5th place team is now at 9 wins because of Colorado’s win, and the race for a home playoff game just tightened. Talk about a momentum swing both ways.
As for why the Rush are in the playoffs with 10 wins, the simple answer is their tiebreak scenarios are so good, there is no multi-team scenario at 10-8 where the Rush fall to 9th or lower with the tiebreak.
If Halifax wins out, not only are they in the playoffs, they have a guaranteed home playoff game. With the teams around them, they don’t have the tiebreak on Colorado, they split with Rochester and they still have to play San Diego. They’re in a position where only one team behind them can catch them in the standings for a home playoff game. A win this weekend will either put them in the playoffs or get them awfully close. As I said before, 10-win teams should be in.
On the opposite end, as I stated earlier, Toronto and Philly won’t be eliminated with losses this weekend because they could still get to 8 wins and in the worst-case scenario, which is Vancouver beating Buffalo and Georgia beating Halifax, Vancouver and Georgia are still at 8 wins, so there’s a mathematical possibility those three teams could catch up. But we’re starting to talk about mathematical possibilities. If this were to occur, Vancouver and Georgia would each have only a 12.5% chance of losing all three remaining games, those teams at 5-10 would only have a 12.5% chance of winning their three remaining games, and you also need Calgary to lose at least twice (50% chance), Albany to lose at least once (87.5% chance) and Ottawa to lose at least twice (68.75% chance). Add all that up, it’s a 0.47% chance to get into a tiebreak situation.
Calgary and Albany don’t play this weekend, so they’re in observation mode. If you’re a team on the outside looking in (Calgary, Ottawa, Albany, Toronto or Philly), you just became the biggest Rush, Bandits and Thunderbirds fans this weekend.
There is the game between San Diego and Rochester where one of those teams will lose and stay at 8 wins. It might be slightly more advantageous if you’re a fan of one of those teams on the outside to see Rochester lose that game because they have one less game remaining and they’re slightly easier to catch. But nobody outside the playoffs has a tiebreak on Rochester or San Diego at the moment, although Toronto and Ottawa can get it on Rochester and Albany can get it on San Diego before the end of the season.
For Albany fans, its better if San Diego loses that game because of their final two games of the season against the Seals and a Seals loss this weekend allows Albany to control their own fate. If San Diego loses this weekend and Albany wins out, Albany is guaranteed at worst to be tied with San Diego and have a 2-0 season edge on them for any tiebreak that might take place amongst 9-win teams.
Thoroughly confused yet? Hopefully the next two weekends things happen that there aren’t so many possibilities, but if the past has taught us anything the lacrosse gods will probably give us a situation with a thousand possibilities and utter chaos. So let’s sit back and enjoy it.
Until next time…