Photo Credit: Princeton Athletics / Karla Donohue

The Princeton Tigers and Syracuse Orange renew what was once the premier rivalry in the sport yet again on Saturday afternoon in Hempstead, New York in the NCAA quarterfinals. The winner of this will advance to the Final Four. 

From 1988 – 2009, Syracuse and Princeton combined to win 17 national championships. It’s hard to understand their dominance in a modern context but UNC in 1991 and Virginia in 1999 were the only other teams besides Princeton and Syracuse to win the national championships in the 1990’s.

It’s been a while for both programs however. Syracuse last won the national championship in 2009, while the Tigers have to go back to 2001. Princeton did make the final four in 2022, a team that featured many of their current players. Syracuse is looking to advance to memorial day weekend for the first time since 2013. 

Both teams are coming off exciting round one victories. Princeton used elite shooting to hammer the Towson Tigers 22-12. Syracuse pulled one of the more improbable upsets in recent history, overcoming an 8-2 halftime advantage to beat the Harvard Crimson in Overtime. 

Statistically, these teams are both elite on offence with very good defences as well. The glaring difference is at the X… more on that later. 

TeamScoring OScoring DFaceoff
Princeton143055
Syracuse10175

Matchup History 

The last time these two teams met was on April 8, 2023 when the Orange won 16-13 at Princeton. That was a coming out party of sorts for All-American Joey Spallina, who finished with 5 goals and 4 assists. On the flip side, Coulter Mackesy led the scoring for the Tigers with 3 goals and 3 assists. 

It’s notable that both the leading scorers in that game are still leading their teams two years later. These are two of the more veteran, experienced teams in the nation and both will be desperate to get back to the final weekend and rewrite their personal and team narratives. 

The last time the teams played in the playoffs was a 15-5 drubbing by the Orange in 2003. It’s been 22 years since the dynasties of the 1990’s have seen each other in an elimination game. 

Keys to Victory

Faceoffs, Faceoffs, Faceoffs 

There is nothing even close in this game in terms of keys to victory. Syracuse faceoff athlete Johnny Mullen is on an incredible tear since the end of the postseason, winning 81% of his draws in the three playoff games. 

For Princeton, the faceoff X has been a struggle this year, but Andrew McMeekin has been in better form as of late. He was very good against Towson, winning 61% of his draws. That was coming on the back of a competitive effort against Cornell, dominant game against Harvard and another solid one against Yale. He’s finding his form, and will need to continue it to have a chance. 

One issue that has plagued him is faceoff violations. While they don’t result in a penalty anymore, he can’t take the next draw after a violation. When the backups come in, that gives the opposition a chance to find a rhythm. That’s dangerous against Mullen. 

It’s unlikely that they will beat Mullen a majority of the time, but Princeton can’t get crushed. 

DO NOT FOUL!

This game pits two of the nation’s top six power play units against each other. I spent some time this week looking at the Syracuse unit (check that out here). Princeton has the nation’s best power play percentage wise, clicking over 57% of the time. 

While the faceoffs were more of a key for Princeton, this one is certainly more tailored to the Orange, who continue to take penalties at an incredible rate. Syracuse has given up the sixth most extra-man opportunities this year and have been fouling a lot recently. 

On that note, something I am watching Saturday is the whistle in this game. Last year in the NCAA quarterfinals, Syracuse got bullied by Denver in a game where the referees really let the two teams play. Syracuse has toed that line all year, notably beating up on Notre Dame earlier this year in a game that saved their season at the time. 

But they will have to adjust quickly to the officiating, and dial it back if needed. The Princeton offence is great enough at 6v6, Syracuse doesn’t need to take a defender off the field. 

Midfield Swagger

The questions here are similar in some senses but have different things that impact them. But in general, these are two of the most talented midfield units in the country and I am curious which one can find their flow and swagger early on. 

For Syracuse, the question comes from any confidence or lack thereof that they can draw from their last outing. The miraculous victory over the Crimson should give the Orange a proverbial second lease on life. It’s almost impossible to play that poorly for a large stretch of the game and make the comeback to win. 

But the offence looked disjointed and out of rhythm for most of that game, especially in the first half. Specifically, Syracuse was trying to force feeds into the crease far too often. Against a good Princeton defence, they need to work hard and have great pace on the perimeter of the defence. If they can do that, Luke Rhoa and Michael Leo can get in a rhythm. Those are the guys who really excel when this offence is rolling. 

They cannot afford the long lulls they had against Harvard. 

On the Princeton side, the question to me is how they find a rhythm if the faceoffs go the way you might expect. When they get repeat possessions, the midfield shows that they are among the nation’s best and deepest, led by Tucker Wade and Chad Palumbo. Wade had 5 goals against Towson and is one of the best unassisted goal-scorers in the country. I would expect him to get the pole Saturday. 

This also suggests to me that a good start is more important for Princeton than Syracuse. They need to get out to a lead early and get their offence online early. Syracuse won’t want to play from behind, but is comfortable doing it and has the faceoff advantage to make late game runs. 

I also think that both close defence units are better than both ROPE units. It’s the NCAA quarterfinals, so there are no true weak links out there. But I expect the offensive midfielders in to have success against the short-sticks. The question will be which team has more success, and which one can settle in quicker at what should be an incredible venue. 

X Factors 

Luke Rhoa

Rhoa was an under-appreciated part of the Orange win over Harvard. His ability to score unassisted goals is unique on the Syracuse offence and he acted as a slump buster for the Orange. When they couldn’t get it going, he managed to beat his man and score from the outside. 

When he got his chances to shoot off a pass, he made them count.

It all comes down to shooting for Rhoa, who is still hovering around 25% on the season. But that number drops to 20% in losses. Rhoa will need to shoot efficiently for Syracuse. 

Ryan Croddick 

Syracuse is a volume shooting team, taking the second most shots in all of Division I. Luckily for Princeton, their goaltender Croddick is used to that sort of thing, as he has made the fourth most saves in the nation. 

He’s coming off a 12-save, 50% effort against Towson and the Ivy final against Cornell when he was unbelievable in the first half before getting worn down and finishing well below 50%. Given the faceoffs and the mentality of the Syracuse offence, Croddick will see a lot of rubber like he did against Cornell. He will have to be sharp early on. 

And unlike that one, he cannot wear down in this one. The Tigers netminder will need to be excellent. 

Faceoff for this one is 2:30 or whenever the Cornell game with Richmond wraps up!

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *