If you thought that week 19 would provide a lot more clarity on who’s making the playoffs, it moved the needle but it solved very little. Buffalo has a home playoff game and likely the #1 seed. Halifax and Rochester have qualified. Toronto is hanging on by a thread. Albany hurt their chances and Philadelphia stayed alive by breaking their eight-game losing streak.
In case you’re wondering why Halifax and Rochester are in with 10 wins, when the team in 9th place is at 8-8, the answer is that Colorado and Calgary play one another in the final week of the season, so there is no scenario remaining where the 9th place team is at 10-8.
While 8-10 hasn’t been eliminated as a possibility to make the playoffs, 9 wins appears to still be the magic number, and you might need a tiebreak at 9-9 to get in.
And before we get too far into this, a big thanks to Graeme Perrow and his Could Happen tool which made going through multiple scenarios a lot faster.
So let’s not waste too much time and get into it.
Tiebreaker Formulas
A quick reminder of how the tiebreakers work when one or more teams are tied.
- If two teams are tied for a position, we go down the list until the tie is broken.
- If more than two teams are tied, we go down the list until one or more teams exits the tie. Any teams that are still tied, you go back to the start of the tiebreak formula with just those teams.
- Winning percentage involving all head-to-head games with the teams in the tie.
- Best record against any team the tied teams played an equal number of times.
- Goal differential in head-to-head games
- Strength of victory (winning % of the teams you defeated)
For example, let’s say Saskatchewan, Halifax, Rochester and Vancouver are all tied at 11-7. In the first tiebreak, you look at every team’s record against anyone else in the tiebreak. Saskatchewan is 4-1 against those teams, Halifax is 3-2, Vancouver is 1-2 and Rochester is 1-4. Saskatchewan finishes ahead with an 80% win percentage, Halifax is next at 60%, Vancouver is next at 33% and Rochester is last at 20%.
As for the teams played and equal number of times, let’s look at a two-way tie with Saskatchewan and Halifax, where the head-to-head is 1-1. There are 6 opponents these teams have played 7 times that count. They both played Rochester twice and Vancouver, Vegas, Georgia, San Diego and Buffalo once each. Saskatchewan is 6-1 and Halifax is 4-2 with one game to go against Buffalo. Therefore, Saskatchewan has this tiebreak.
Buffalo Bandits
Record: 12-4
Games Remaining: vs Halifax, @ Georgia
Important Tiebreaks: have the tiebreak on Saskatchewan, don’t have it on Halifax in any scenario where the two are tied, finish 2nd in a 3-way tiebreak.
- Have clinched a home playoff game.
- Can’t finish worse than 3rd overall.
- Will be the #1 seed with:
- a win in either remaining game; or
- Two losses, Saskatchewan loses at least once, Halifax loses to Toronto.
- Will finish 2nd with:
- Two losses, two Saskatchewan wins; Halifax loses to Toronto; or
- Two losses; two Halifax wins; Saskatchewan loses at least once.
- Will finish 3rd with two losses, two Saskatchewan wins & two Halifax wins.
Buffalo is in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed with Saskatchewan’s loss to Calgary. But playing Halifax this weekend complicates things. A Thunderbirds’ win in that game and the battle for first is on, and its really interesting if Saskatchewan beats Colorado this weekend. Buffalo is 84% to be the #1 seed, 13% to be the #2 seed and 3% to be the #3 seed.
Saskatchewan Rush
Record: 11-5
Games Remaining: @ Colorado, vs Ottawa
Important Tiebreaks: 0-1 vs Buffalo, 1-1 vs Halifax (in a 2-way tiebreak, Saskatchewan wins on common games), 2-0 vs Rochester, 1-0 vs Vancouver, finish 3rd in a 3-way tiebreak with Halifax and Buffalo
- Have clinched a home playoff game
- Can’t finish worse than 3rd overall.
- Will be the #1 seed with two wins and two Bandits losses
- Will be the #2 seed with:
- Any win and any Bandits win
- Lose twice, Halifax loses at least once (in any 11-7 tiebreak for 2nd, Rush finish 2nd)
- Will be the #3 seed with:
- two losses and two Halifax wins
- two Buffalo losses, two Halifax wins, Rush go 1-1 (3-way tie at 12-6)
The Rush managed to strike more iron on Friday night than a blacksmith. I’m still stunned they would have a country night in Saskatchewan in the playoff stretch run given the long-standing curse. But because the Rush win any possible tiebreak at 11-7, they can’t slip below #3 and we can calculate their full odds by analyzing just 32 scenarios. The Rush have a 6% chance to be the #1 seed, 81% to be the #2 seed and 13% to be the #3 seed.
Halifax Thunderbirds
Overall Record: 10-6
Games Remaining: @ Buffalo, @ Toronto
Important Tiebreaks: 1-0 vs Buffalo in any circumstance where they are tied, 1-1 vs Saskatchewan (don’t have the tiebreak in a 2-way tie due to common games), 1-1 vs Rochester (most likely have the tiebreak on strength of victory), 1-0 vs Vancouver, 0-1 vs Georgia, 0-1 vs Colorado, 1-0 vs San Diego, 0-1 vs Calgary
- They have qualified for the playoffs.
- Guaranteed a home playoff game with any win or
- a number of scenarios at 10-8. However, of the 99 scenarios where 10 wins is enough to get a home playoff game, Halifax has a home playoff game in less than 20% of them.
- Become the #1 overall seed with two wins, a Buffalo loss to Georgia and Saskatchewan loses at least once.
- Become the #2 seed overall with two specific scenarios:
- They win twice, Buffalo loses to Georgia, Saskatchewan wins twice; or
- They win twice, Buffalo defeats Georgia, Saskatchewan loses twice.
As much as Halifax is in the playoffs, you know they want to host a playoff game at the Nest. Because they have the tiebreaks on Rochester and Vancouver, a win accomplishes that. As much as there are other crazy scenarios that could play out for them to get a home game, that shouldn’t be the focus.
Rochester Knighthawks
Overall Record: 10-7
Remaining Game: vs Toronto
Key Tiebreaks: 0-2 vs Saskatchewan, 1-1 vs Halifax (most likely won’t have the tiebreak in a 2-way tie due to strength of victory), 0-1 vs Vancouver, 1-0 vs Calgary, 0-1 vs Colorado, 1-0 vs Georgia, 1-0 vs San Diego
- Rochester has qualified for the playoffs.
- Cannot finish higher than 3rd
- Will host a 1st round playoff game with:
- A win & two Halifax losses
- A win & any Vancouver loss
- A loss, either Halifax loses twice or Vancouver loses once, and a number of combinations where teams currently at 8-8 get to 10-8, preferably Calgary, Georgia or San Diego.
I cannot locate any scenarios where Rochester can clinch a home playoff game this weekend because their home playoff game percentages are mostly based on them winning against Toronto in the final week. According to Graeme Perrow, Rochester’s odds of hosting a playoff game are 54.8%. Most of those scenarios involve Rochester winning and one Vancouver loss.
In the 2-way tiebreak scenario with Halifax, I say that Rochester is likely to lose. This is because this tiebreaker comes down to strength of victory, the 4th tiebreaker. Currently the teams Halifax has defeated have a combined total of 74 wins to Rochester’s 68. That could change, but its unlikely.
Vancouver Warriors
Overall Record: 9-7
Remaining Games: @ Toronto, vs Philadelphia
Key Tiebreakers: 0-1 vs Saskatchewan, 0-1 vs Halifax, 1-0 vs Rochester, 0-1 vs Colorado, 1-1 vs Calgary, 1-1 vs San Diego, 1-0 vs Georgia, 1-1 vs Ottawa
- Vancouver is 98.6% to make the playoffs
- Cannot finish higher than 3rd.
- Make the playoffs with a win in either game; or two losses and:
- Less than four of Colorado, Calgary, San Diego, Georgia and Ottawa get to 9 or more wins; or
- They avoid a number of 9-9 tiebreakers that don’t go their way, mostly involving Ottawa getting to 9-9.
- Get a home playoff game with:
- Two wins; orÂ
- One win, Rochester loses, Halifax wins at least once and no other team gets to 10 wins, or one of the following combinations of teams gets to 10-8:
- San Diego only, Georgia only, Calgary only, San Diego and Georgia, or Georgia and Calgary
- One win, Rochester wins, Halifax loses twice and Georgia gets to 10 wins; or
- One win, Rochester and Halifax lose all remaining games and one of the following combinations of 10 win teams:
- No other team reaches 10 wins, San Diego only, Georgia only, Calgary only, San Diego and Georgia, Georgia and Calgary, Georgia and Colorado or San Diego, Georgia and Calgary
Because of all of these 1-1 head-to-head tiebreakers, if Vancouver is 9-9, and enough other teams get to 9-9, who gets into the playoffs is a mess. To even get there is unlikely, but mathematically possible. But there are scenarios where Vancouver finishes 8th and Calgary finishes 9th because Vancouver is +1 in goal differential in their head-to-head games.
The 8-8 Teams
If I wrote about every possible combination that the 8-8 teams could get in on, we would be here until tomorrow. Instead, let’s focus on a couple of things that are less stressful.
Any of the 8-8 teams will be in the playoffs with two wins (10-8 record). Also, in most, but not all circumstances, 9-9 will get you in. The exceptions to this are that if at least four of Colorado, San Diego, Calgary, Georgia and Ottawa get to 9 wins, then tiebreaks get involved.
Because we are guaranteed that at least 6 teams will get to 9-9 (five already are there and one of Colorado or Calgary is guaranteed to get there), if you’re an 8-8 team that slides to 8-10, this is where your main pitfall of not making the playoffs lies. The odds that two 8-10 teams make the playoffs are just 3.1%. There’s only a 12.5% chance that 8-10 and the right tiebreak is enough for even one spot.
Here is each team’s individual situation:
Georgia Swarm
Games Remaining: @ Philadelphia, vs Buffalo
Key Tiebreakers: 1-0 vs Halifax, 0-1 vs Rochester, 0-1 vs Vancouver, 2-0 vs San Diego, 1-1 vs Colorado, 0-1 vs Calgary, 1-1 vs Ottawa, 0-1 vs Albany, 0-2 vs Philadelphia (in any situation where they’re tied), 2-0 vs Toronto.
San Diego Seals
Games Remaining: @ Albany, vs Albany
Key Tiebreakers: 0-1 vs Halifax, 0-1 vs Rochester, 1-1 vs Vancouver, 0-2 vs Georgia, 1-0 vs Colorado, 1-0 vs Calgary, 1-0 vs Ottawa, 0-2 vs Albany (in any scenario where they’re tied), 1-0 vs Philadelphia, 1-0 vs Toronto
Colorado Mammoth
Games Remaining: vs Saskatchewan, @ Calgary
Key Tiebreakers: 1-0 vs Halifax, 1-0 vs Rochester, 1-0 vs Vancouver, 0-1 vs San Diego, 1-1 vs Georgia, 1-0 vs Calgary with one to play, 0-1 vs Ottawa, 1-1 vs Albany, 1-0 vs Philadelphia, 0-1 vs Toronto
Calgary Roughnecks
Games Remaining: @ Vegas, vs Colorado
Key Tiebreakers: 1-0 vs Halifax, 0-1 vs Rochester, 1-1 vs Vancouver, 1-0 vs Georgia, 0-1 vs San Diego, 0-1 vs Colorado with one to play, 1-0 vs Ottawa, 1-0 vs Albany, 0-1 vs Philadelphia, 0-1 vs Toronto
While looking at all the scenarios is too difficult, there are a few things that are easier to describe. First, to look at whether these 8-8 teams can host a playoff game, we only have to look at 99 scenarios. Here’s what we know:
- The 8-8 teams must win both remaining games to have any chance of hosting a playoff game.
- San Diego can finish no better than 5th.
- Odds are 11.4% for Colorado, 2.4% for Calgary and 1.4% for Georgia.
- Calgary can finish no better than 4th. Of the 28 scenarios where 10-8 is good enough to get a home playoff game and Calgary is 10-8, Calgary gets a home playoff game in 7 of them.
- Georgia can finish as high as 3rd, but only in one circumstance. Of the 42 scenarios where 10-8 is good enough to get a home playoff game and Georgia is 10-8, Georgia hosts in 11 of them.
- Colorado has multiple avenues to have a home playoff game if 10-8 is good enough to get a home playoff game and Colorado is 10-8. Of the 28 scenarios where this happens, Colorado hosts a playoff game in 24 of them.
- Despite having no chance of a home playoff game in the opening round, San Diego has the best odds of making the playoffs at 71% because of other tiebreakers. Calgary is 69.1%, Georgia 66.7% and Colorado 64.8% to make the playoffs. Colorado’s 10-8 tiebreaks look very good, but not so much their 9-9 and 8-10 situations.
Ottawa Black Bears
Overall Record: 7-9
Games Remaining: vs Vegas, @ Saskatchewan
Key Tiebreakers: 1-1 vs Vancouver, 1-1 vs Georgia, 0-1 vs San Diego, 1-0 vs Colorado, 0-1 vs Calgary, 1-0 vs Albany, 1-0 vs Philadelphia, 2-0 vs Toronto
Like the 8-8 teams, there’s just too many possibilities for the Black Bears to write them all down without a lengthy explanation.
If Ottawa finishes 8-10, they still have a shot at making the playoffs, but keep in mind, there’s only a 12.5% chance that 8-10 is good enough to make the playoffs. Ottawa is close to 50/50 getting in with 9-9 and a tiebreaker so they’re hoping to win out and two 8-8 teams to lose out. Their odds of making the payoffs are 19.9% and their odds of finishing 9-9 are 25% to help put things into perspective.
Albany FireWolves
Overall Record: 6-10
Games Remaining: vs San Diego, @ San Diego
Key Tiebreakers: 1-0 vs Georgia, 2-0 vs San Diego in any situation where they are tied, 1-1 vs Colorado, 0-1 vs Calgary, 0-1 vs Ottawa, 2-0 vs Philadelphia, 1-0 vs Toronto
To make the playoffs, Albany must:
- Win both remaining games (which brings San Diego down to 8-10); and
- At least one more 8-8 team must lose out, preferably more; and
- Other factors have to go their way in an 8-10 tiebreak.
Albany is 8.2% to make the playoffs compared to 1.8% for Philly despite having the same record. The main reason for this is that by winning out, they automatically drag San Diego into the 8-10 tiebreak, and they need at least one more team to get there, which Colorado and Calgary are prime candidates. Plus, Albany’s tiebreak situation is in far better shape than Philly’s. Keep in mind, if Albany can sweep San Diego, that alone brings their odds of making the playoffs up to 33%.
Philadelphia Wings
Overall Record: 6-10
Games Remaining: vs Georgia, @ Vancouver
Key Tiebreakers: Would be 2-0 vs Georgia if they are tied, 0-1 vs San Diego, 1-0 vs Calgary, 0-1 vs Colorado, 0-1 vs Ottawa, 0-2 vs Albany, 0-1 vs Toronto
To make the playoffs, Philadelphia must:
- Win all 3 remaining games; and
- At least two of the teams at 8-8 must lose out, one of them being Georgia; and
- Other factors have to come into play
I didn’t have the time to go through every possibility but in the scenarios I could easily find for the Wings, involved Georgia, Calgary and Ottawa losing out, Toronto losing at least once and whether Albany and San Diego were involved in the tiebreak was irrelevant. It’s a long shot for Philly, 1.8% chance to make the playoffs. Rochester beat similar odds last year and to think they would win last week, with Mitch Jones tossed just a minute into the game, after losing 8 in a row, wasn’t fathomable. You never know.
Toronto Rock
Overall Record: 5-10
Games Remaining: vs Vancouver, vs Halifax, @ Rochester
Key Tiebreaks: 1-0 vs Philadelphia, 0-1 vs Albany, 0-2 vs Ottawa, 0-2 vs Georgia, 0-1 vs San Diego, 1-0 vs Colorado, 1-0 vs Calgary
Toronto makes the playoffs if:
- They win all three remaining games; and
- Colorado, Georgia and Ottawa lose both remaining games; and
- Philadelphia wins both remaining games; and
- Albany loses at least once
Toronto has to run the gauntlet to get in. Out of the 16,384 possible scenarios, only 12 of them get Toronto in, and in this exact order. It may seem strange that they need Georgia in that tiebreaker after being 0-2 against them, which is why it took me so long to find the pattern because I was ignoring Georgia at first. But this one pattern puts them in a 4-way tie for 8th at 8-10, and after applying two different tiebreakers, they’re in.
So there you have it, the mess that is the unified standings. But don’t you just love how the unified standings means that so many teams still have something to play for this weekend?
Until next time…
Very interesting. Still as confused as can be. Thanks