Random Thoughts: The First Look at Playoff Scenarios

My random thoughts…

Another week of NLL action means that the playoff picture got a little clearer, but not clear enough to make any solid predictions just yet.

Of the seven games this weekend, only two were remotely close.  Normally we yearn for the days where there was little overlap of games and a seven-game weekend could be watched with one, maybe two devices instead of the standard four.  Unfortunately, so many games were that lopsided, it was a struggle to keep watching many of these games.

We go from one week with seven games, and nobody playing a double header, to a week with seven games, where two have a bye week (Saskatchewan and Rochester) and most of the weekend, there will be two games happening at the same time.

The Playoff Picture

As we go along, week by week, the NLL playoff picture gets a little clearer.  There are two things that did get clearer this weekend.  The first is that the Buffalo Bandits likely have first place locked up now.  With six games to go, the Bandits would have to drop at least three games and one of Saskatchewan, Halifax or Colorado would have to go perfect the rest of the way.  Its not mathematically impossible for this to happen, but for a Bandits team that has only lost twice this season, the concept of them losing twice and the 6.25% chance the Rush win out or the 3.1% chance the Thunderbirds or Mammoth win out, is difficult to fathom.  Keep in mind that it is impossible for both Colorado and Saskatchewan to win out.

The other thing that became apparent is that Philadelphia’s chances of making the playoffs are very slim.  With their losing streak now extended to six games, at 5-8, the odds don’t look good for them.  The math is now pointing towards teams needing to be 9-9 to make the playoffs, with a long shot of 8-10 and a tiebreak being enough.  The Wings would need to go 4-1 the rest of the way, after a six-game losing streak.  Their schedule the rest of the way includes Ottawa, Vancouver, Georgia twice and Toronto.

Philly has truly done this to themselves.  Have a look at their last three losses.  Two of them were to an Albany team who at the time was in last place.  This past weekend, they lost to a Colorado team that was missing half of its offense.  Towards the end of the game, when the Wings took their timeout with 25 seconds to go, Ian Rubel seemed so disengaged.  This was a must win game.  Yes, scoring twice in 25 seconds wouldn’t be easy, but at that point, you needed to give it everything you could to tie that game up.

Albany has won three of their last four games, but its likely too late to make the NLL playoff.  To get to 9-9, they need to win their last four games, against Buffalo, Vancouver and San Diego twice.

If we assume the long shots won’t happen, that means we are down to ten teams battling for 8 spots.  The Calgary Roughnecks at 7-7 are the team in 8^th place at the moment.  Their remaining schedule is at home against San Diego, at Saskatchewan, at Vegas and home against Colorado.  Its definitely possible for them to go 2-2 down this stretch to get to 9-9.

For the teams on the outside looking in, Ottawa and Vancouver, the Warriors are just a half game out of the playoffs, and their target is 3-2 to get into the playoffs, and they might need a tiebreak on top of that. For Vancouver, if they can get a win in either of their next two games against Georgia at home or on the road against Buffalo, they’re in good shape as they end the season with Albany, Toronto and Philly.  If needed, they have the tiebreak on Rochester.  They have split against San Diego and Ottawa.  They don’t have the tiebreak against Calgary and Georgia is yet to be decided.

For Ottawa, they’re one of two teams with six games left (the other being Buffalo).  They have a double-header weekend, but with a rest day in between.  If they lose to both Halifax and Colorado, their playoff chances are almost over. If they split, they’re still alive, but will have a lot of work to do.  A weekend sweep would get them to .500 which is where they need to be to get into the playoffs.  The Black Bears don’t have a great tiebreak scenario at this point.  They don’t have the tiebreak against San Diego, Calgary and they’re behind Rochester with a chance to split the season series later on.  They’ve split the season series already with Vancouver and Georgia.  There isn’t a team immediately above them that they’ve secured the tiebreak with at this point.

Haven’t Broken From The Pack Yet…

We’ve discussed the situations that lie ahead of Calgary, the 8^th team in the playoffs at the moment.  But three other teams in Rochester, San Diego and Georgia are just a half game ahead of Calgary and one game ahead of Vancouver.  Let’s take a quick look at their situations.

Rochester is easier to project because they only have three games remaining.  It seems strange that a team has three games to go and two still have six to go, but that’s the NLL when arena availabilities don’t always allow for a nice, balanced schedule.  The three games they have left are all home games against San Diego, Ottawa and Toronto.  San Diego is a battle against an opponent fighting for the same playoff spot, but Ottawa’s fate could be close to sealed this weekend and Toronto’s fate is almost entirely sealed. 

The fact that Rochester will not only play all their remaining games at home, but the last two could be against teams that are out of the playoff picture, gives them an advantage.  In terms of tiebreaks, they have the tiebreak against Georgia, Calgary and Ottawa, they don’t have it against Vancouver and Colorado, Halifax is a split and San Diego will be decided in a week and a half.  Rochester needs to go 1-2 at a minimum over those last three games to get in and 2-1 almost guarantees they’ll be in.

San Diego has the opposite schedule from the Knighthawks in that they play their next four games on the road in Calgary, Rochester, Halifax and Albany before finishing at home against Albany.  Four road games not help them, and three of those road games are their longest travel dates of the season.  The advantage is that Albany awaits them in the last two games, although the way Albany has played lately, those aren’t certain wins anymore. 

San Diego needs to go 2-3 down the stretch to get into the playoffs.  In terms of tiebreaks, they have it against Colorado and Ottawa.  They split against Vancouver.  They don’t have the tiebreak against Georgia.  Calgary, Rochester and Halifax are all still to be decided.

And finally we get to Georgia. Three of their final five games are at home.  They play Vancouver on the road, Halifax at home, a home and away with Philadelphia and finish the season against Buffalo.  They too need to go 2-3 to get in, but preferably 3-2.  Their next two games are against teams they’re playing for position.  The game in Vancouver this week is critical.  A loss puts Vancouver and Georgia on level ground and Vancouver has the tiebreak.  Win that game and you’ve put some considerable distance between yourself and a team on the outside looking in.  They have the tiebreaker against San Diego.  They split against Colorado and Ottawa.  They don’t have it against Rochester or Calgary.  Vancouver and Halifax are to be determined.

The Tucker Out Lymphoma Cup

The Tucker Cup may have been on the backburner lately with no games being played for it in a while.  But Adam Levi messaged me Tuesday morning about it.  He remembered it well but needed help with the tiebreak formula.  Indeed, he was correct.  Each team involved in the cup plays three games to determine the winner.  Albany has lost both games so far and cannot win the cup.  Vegas is 1-1 after a win versus Albany and a loss to Georgia, which counted in the standings.  Buffalo has only played one game so far and beat Albany.

What this means is that the game on Friday between Buffalo and Vegas determines the winner of the Tucker Cup.  If Buffalo wins, they’re 2-0 and neither Vegas or Albany can get two wins.  If Vegas wins, they’re 2-1, Buffalo is 1-1 with a game against Albany to go, but, Vegas holds the tiebreak even if Buffalo gets to 2-1, and the Desert Dogs win the Tucker Cup.

In a rough season for the Desert Dogs, winning this cup, especially with a win against Buffalo, would be a minor victory to be pleased with.  Yes, its going to be an uphill battle for the Desert Dogs, but we’ve seen too many upsets this season to completely write them off.

This past weekend when the Seals were up 7-0 early on the Desert Dogs, I tried to provide a positive distraction to Desert Dogs by hosting an ask me anything on their fan forum.  I was fully expecting it to be a place where people would be venting their frustration, but luckily there wasn’t much of that.  Some new fans took the opportunity to ask about everything from player salaries to why defensive players don’t pick up their stick when they lose it.

One fan asked the question about how many years does it take for an expansion franchise to have success.  There isn’t an answer for that.  San Diego made the playoffs in their first year.  The Black Bears/Riptide have yet to make the playoffs despite having Jeff Teat.  The Rush took five seasons to make the playoffs for the first time, and finished last in the West 3 of the 4 years prior to making the playoffs. It took a lot of patience for the Rush to materialize, but when they did a decade later, they won three championships in four years.

How many more years will it take for the Desert Dogs to achieve success?  Its anyone’s guess.  Did any of us believe that Albany would make the playoffs last year based on their 2023 performance?  Of course not.

While Vegas traded away its first and second round picks in 2025, they got two back.  They have Albany’s first round pick, which currently would be third overall.  They also have Colorado’s second round pick, which would be 31^st overall if the season ended today.  They’ll also be receiving a compensatory pick for losing Rob Hellyer somewhere between 15^th and 17^th overall.

Guess Who’s Back

With Christian Del Bianco now a member of the Warriors, the first and second orders of business were to get a physical completed and to get a contract signed.  To my surprise, the contract that was negotiated was only a one-year (or in fact a half year) contract, with both sides expressing an interest in negotiating a longer term deal in the offseason.  I would fully expect that there is a four-year deal in place this summer, which would take Del Bianco all the way to the age of 33.  This would secure Vancouver’s franchise tag to be available to others while getting Del Bianco all the way to the point where he could reject the franchise tag in the future.

With all that in place, the question was whether not playing any NLL games this season would make Del Bianco rusty to start with.  It was certainly in my mind, but I saw it as less of a factor given that he had been playing all along, albeit in the ALL.

If there were any concerns about Del Bianco being rusty, he quickly put that to bed.   In the first quarter, he saved 16 of 17 for a save percentage of 0.941.  By halftime, he had stopped 31 of 33 for a save percentage of 0.939.  Even though he finished the game with 49 stops on 57 shots for a save percentage of 0.860, most of those goals came during garbage time with the result already decided.

Allowing 57 shots wasn’t good for Vancouver, a team with a strong defense all year, so that needs improvement.  And finally, the Warriors got the message to get into the middle on offense.  Overall, it was a great performance.  The Warriors have a great goalie now.  The question remains as to whether they can convert that into a playoff spot.  In ten previous seasons in Vancouver, the team only made the playoffs once in 2017.  The fans have endured enough “wait until next year.”  Its time to see if they can finally capitalize.

Until next time…