They say that defence wins championships.
If that’s true, it is unsurprising that either of these teams is still in the national championship hunt.
The Denver Pioneers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are set to square off on Saturday for a birth in the national championship game. The Irish are looking to finish off a dominant season in fine form. After losing to Georgetown early in the season, they have been on a dominant run in recent weeks.
If you missed our review of last weekend, see that here.
They would join the 2008 and 2009 Syracuse teams, the 2013 and 2014 Duke teams, and the 2019 and 2021 Virginia teams as groups that have won back to back titles this century.
The Pioneers are one of three final four teams to not have won their conference tournament after a semi-final loss to Villanova. But they rebounded in excellent style, crushing Michigan and then suffocating a previously elite Syracuse offence.
If you like defensive lacrosse, this could be your matchup.
Denver enters the game as the nation’s second best scoring defence. Notre Dame is fourth. Both defences are big, mean, talented, and well-coached. They do have different styles. Notre Dame plays the ball well outside the box and prepares to support if needed. Denver packs as many bodies as they can in the interior of the defence, allowing the whole unit to support and collapse as needed. Both are extremely effective.
Of course, Notre Dame also has the best scoring offence in the nation, so the Pios will have their hands full. Denver is 30th in scoring offence.
The most obvious battle in this game is at the X, where All-American Alex Stathakis will square off with Will Lynch of Notre Dame. Lynch has been on a tear for the Irish recently though, and has been dominant in the NCAA tournament. While Stathakis is likely to get the edge, the question will be whether or not he can dominate. Denver’s path to victory would likely depend on a significant possession advantage.
Beyond that, there are a number of fun battles to look out for. Let’s get right into them.
Special Teams, Special Plays, Special Players
This game features a fun battle between two of the best specialty units that we have seen in at least a decade. Notre Dame’s powerplay unit clicks at 71% on the season, easily the best in the nation. In the official NCAA data which goes back as far as 2010, only one other team maintained a 70% rate over a full season (the abbreviated 2020 season does not count).
The 2014 Detroit Mercy Titans were the other (how’s that for some trivia).Â
Denver’s penalty kill unit is currently operating at 84%, the highest since? You guessed it, the 2013 Binghamton Bearcats, who stopped 86% of opposition attempts.
Ok, you definitely did not guess that, but it’s true. The Bearcats managed to maintain the best unit in the nation despite finishing with a record of 5-9. I think they should have fouled more.
For the record, the best man-down unit that I could find was the 2012 Notre Dame team that defended 89% of their man-down situations. They gave up just 4 goals on 37 attempts. Sheesh.
In making my notes for this game, I had planned to write this section on the importance of not fouling for Denver. I thought they towed the line in the Syracuse game, but likely should have gotten more penalty flags than they did. Plays like this won’t be no-calls very often.
But after digging into the data, Denver’s man-down is so good, maybe it doesn’t matter. Either way. It will be a fun battle to watch between the two best specialty units of the decade.
Chaos. Who Says No?
One of the main issues for Denver in this game is that their most obvious path to victory (which is to junk it up, cause turnovers, run in transition and keep the scoring low) feeds right into the hands of the Irish. Nobody in the country feeds off of chaos quite like the Irish, and specifically like the Kavanagh brothers.
There was no better example of it than this one against Georgetown.
Particularly on faceoffs, Denver will need to manage the ball well and avoid these hectic scenarios.
The hard part for the Pios will be deciding when and where to push the ball themselves and take chances. They have scored goals all year with their rope unit, but a track-meet against a team as deep as Notre Dame is a tall order.
Make or Miss League
This game more than others will come down to shooting. Obviously, the team that hits more shots will win but it goes deeper than that here.
Notre Dame is going to need to score some from distance. Denver packs it in so tight, that they make it hard to string multiple passes together. While some fans on twitter were critical of the athleticism on the Syracuse offence, I don’t think that was the issue.
The problem was not speed, but rather the ability to score from 10-15 yards. Consider this play near the end of the half, where Owen Hiltz tries to feed it into the cutting Finn Thomson. The way Denver is playing, it’s almost impossible to feed this in. But look where Hiltz is on the field, roughly at the hashmarks and about 11 yards. If he could just step in and shoot one, there may be goals to be had.
And on the contrary, Denver makes it EXTREMELY difficult to feed inside cutters. Notre Dame saw some of that against Georgetown, and will need to avoid plays like this.
The Irish have the ability to space the defence. If I am the Irish staff, I’m instructing my guys to stay wide when their teammates are dodging, and to be ready to step aggressively into shots.
This is also true on dodges, which is where Notre Dame will put pressure on Denver in the midfield. Dobson, Reilly Gray, and Will Angrick are all big-time on the run shooters, and their ability to score these shots will be huge. Syracuse had some of these looks and missed, like this one.
Notre Dame cashed these shots against Georgetown.
For Denver, they have to do what they can to not let Liam Entenmann really get going. He’s going to be somewhere between good and very good in this game. For the Pioneers, the challenge is not let him get to the supernova level that we have seen him play before. I thought they put some easy ones on Will Mark and let him heat up. That might kill them Saturday.
Bait and Switch
Aside from the shooting, the focus for Denver offensively needs to be on getting switches for their attackmen and attacking in the invert. Notre Dame will be slow to go to most everything up top, especially going down the alley where Entenmann really succeeds.
They also aren’t going to slide often off of their long-sticks. Likewise, they will try harder than other teams to keep their desired matchups with those players.
You aren’t going to beat this Irish defence with slick moves, so slip-picks and other trickeration is going to be tough. The Pios need to set great picks to earn switches, then attack. This is a good example.
When they do get switches, or with their middies, the invert is a good option. Notre Dame is willing to support these matchups more willingly than elsewhere on the field. Denver will need to hope this remains true. If so, they can use their ball movement and shooting from the midfield to have success.
The reality is that this Notre Dame defence is very strong, and has the best netminder in the nation behind them. It’s going to be a battle.
X Factors
I’m going to avoid Stathakis and Lynch here. They are obviously the most important matchup on the field.
For Denver, I’ll go with Malcom Kleban, their all-conference goaltender. He was locked in against Syracuse and as discussed above, I expect the Irish to test him from deep. Their scheme depends on saves from these areas.
For Notre Dame, I’ll go with whichever one of Jordan Faison and Eric Dobson don’t draw the pole. There is a possibility that both of them get covered by long-sticks, but I think Denver will start the game straight up. Their ability to win matchups and hit shots will be important against this meat-grinder of a defence.
As a reminder, the team that plays the first (i.e earlier) semi-final game has an extreme statistical advantage when it comes to Monday.
It’s finally here folks, hope you enjoy. Look for a Maryland – UVA preview later this afternoon!
And Happy Memorial Day!