Once again in May, Virginia is set to square off with Maryland. These two teams have met in the NCAA tournament in 2019, the National Championship in 2021, the tournament again in 2022, and every one of those years in the regular season. And obviously they combined for three national titles in that time.
Both teams came into the tournament off losses, and both were trendy picks in the first round to be victims of upsets. They both answered with resounding victories in round one, and come back wins in the quarterfinals.
Coaches Tillman and Tiffany have defined this half-decade of college lacrosse, and it could be argued that this year is some of their best work. While both teams could have been considered bubble teams at tournament time, they have both found solutions during the playoffs and are heading back to championship weekend.
There are some important themes in this game which are so obvious, they aren’t worth discussing. Maryland will need to be tight on Payton Cormier and solid in the big/little game. Defending McCabe Millon going to the goal will obviously be important as well.
For Virginia, winning faceoffs will obviously be a major story. They will be in tough against Wierman and company.
There are some things we know we will see in this game, but there are some unusual questions for a game of this magnitude. I thought it would be interesting to analyze some of those questions.
What We Know: Ajax vs Shellenberger!
We know that two of the best players in the country are going to match up with each other. This has been such a fun battle over the years. Ajax won the battle decisively in 2022, holding the Virginia attackmen to zero points. He also recently won the Enners award as the nation’s best player. However, he wasn’t a finalist for the Tewaaraton award, which could very well go to Shellenberger.
So we have a possible split in the two awards which are supposed to go to the best player in the nation. And those two are going to play the entire game in a direct matchup with each other?
Should be fun.
What We Don’t: Who will play goalie for Virginia?
It seems likely that Kyle Morris will be the starter after he righted the ship and allowed only 6 goals in his time in the cage. Matt Nunes was pulled quickly in that game, and coach Tiffany indicated after the game that he probably should have started Morris after his week in practice.
Well, making your first career start in the final four is some way to do it. I would think it’s the first time a goalie change has been made during championship weekend for a non-injury. That doesn’t mean it won’t work, and Morris has answered the bell several times. But it’s a juicy storyline.
What We Know: The Virginia midfield on most shifts
I’ll talk about this more below, but the Cavaliers will ride Griffin Schutz, Ryan Colsey, and Jack Boyden. The three of them are extremely talented and difficult to deal with. The Terps will have a plan for them, but that obviously doesn’t mean success.
What we don’t: Which six players will be on offence for the terps on any given shift.
To say that Maryland is shuffling the deck would be an understatement. They are blending the deck, then throwing the pieces into a high powered fan. Eric Malever, Braden Erksa, Eric Spanos, Daniel Kelly, and Danny Maltz are all likely to see time at attack at some point. All of those players will compete in the midfield too, in addition to Jack Koras, Ryan Siracuse, Zack Whittier, Owen Murphy, Jack Brennan, and Elijah Stobaugh. Griffin King might play man-up. That’s 12 players for those keeping track at home.
Other teams play a lot of players. Notre Dame for example has been rolling three lines. But they’re always the same lines. Maryland has really been mixing it up, and success has followed. What they give up in chemistry, they may make up for in being difficult to scout. It’s an interesting experiment.
With those questions aside, lets look at some of the major keys to the game.
Who’s Got Gas?
The longer this game stays close, the more it favors Maryland. The Cavaliers barely play their second line midfield and Maryland has the stable of players listed above.
With that being said, Virginia engineered a late game comeback against Hopkins and won the fourth quarter 3-0 before finally winning the game in double overtime. The fitness level of UVA’s best players is remarkable, and the fact that they dominated late in the game is incredible given their usage.
Luke Wierman’s play will be important here. If he can have success and Maryland can control possession, then Maryland can flex their fresh legs and wear down the Virginia defence. If not, Virginia’s star power can gain some confidence and this game will be tricky for Maryland.
Cavaliers Need to Play 6v6
On Sunday, I commented on the games in real time. At 6:15 of the second quarter, I wrote the following about Virginia after Hopkins scored to make it 7-4.
Over the next 40+ minutes of lacrosse, the Cavs gave up just 3 goals, and eliminated most of their transition errors.
Hopkins scored only twice at 6v6, and really struggled to win matchups late in the game.
Maryland is one of the best teams in the country at creating offence outside of the 6v6. Wierman scored twice against Maryland and has 5 points in his last three contests.
He has been joined on the wings by midfielder Jack Koras, one of the Terps best offensive players, and LSM Jack Macdonald who is also comfortable with the ball. Virginia’s guys can do it too, but they specifically need to do what they can to eliminate the non-traditional goals for Maryland.
Similarly, the Cavaliers fouled too many times. They will live with some of them, but Hopkins scored three times with the extra man. Special teams can often play a big role in these games, but the focus for Virginia should be to avoid them in the first place. They need to stay out of the box.
What’s the Plan With the Ten-Man
The most significant tactical decision is what Virginia will do in the ride.
Virginia punished Hopkins with their ten-man ride, forcing nine failed clears in total, and six in the second half.
Here is an example.
Maryland made their own mistakes in the clearing game, including this one.
Generally avoiding Ben Wayer would be a great strategy. Wayer is a monster who can really impact the game. There were a few great stories written about him last week, first in the Richmond Times Dispatch then in USA Lacrosse Magazine. They detail his return to the field and recovery from a substance abuse issue. I am rooting for Ben in lacrosse and life, and respect his vulnerability with a sensitive subject. He’s got a fan in me.
Limiting turnovers will be a key for the Terps in all situations. Maryland had 11 turnovers in the first half against Duke and just 7 in the second, part of the reason they were able to come back. Being clean in the ride and maximizing whatever advantage Wierman can earn will be huge.
But Virginia will dictate some of this themselves. Do they come out in the ten-man ride from the very beginning? If so, do they stick with it? If not, when will they turn to it? These questions will have a major impact on this game.
X Factors
Easy answer here, but it’s Wierman for Maryland. I expect him to win his matchup, but the X factor potential comes from his ability to dominate (i.e not just win, but win by a lot) and his ability to create offence. If he can manufacture goals, the Terps are in business.
For the Cavaliers, it’s McCabe Millon. He was the player of the game against Hopkins. I like how aggressive he was hunting his own shots and specifically his right hand. Repeating that success will go a long way towards a UVA victory.
Stay tuned to LCD for more coverage throughout the weekend!
Well done, JD!