In another regular season rematch, Johns Hopkins will play a virtual home game at Towson against the Virginia Cavaliers.
If you missed our other previews, check them out here.
For Hopkins, they will be looking to recreate the magic they found at Klockner stadium on March 2nd when they beat the Cavaliers 16-14. That wound up being the marquee victory of the season (other than beating a now resurgent Maryland team) for the Blue Jays and is one reason they secured the third seed.
They were on an offensive skid coming into the tournament, scoring fewer than 10 goals in three of the four previous games. They bounced back last week with 13 against Lehigh, and will look to use their positionless motion offence in this one.
This season has a “last ride” feel for the Cavaliers, who will graduate program legends Connor Shellenberger and Payton Cormier at season’s end. After the longest losing streak of their career into the ACC tournament, Cormier had 8 goals and Shellenberger had 2 goals and 5 assists.
Most importantly, UVA seemed to get their swagger back. After a bad loss to Duke, they lost a nail-biter to Syracuse and then lost twice against Notre Dame, the second of which was a blowout. I wondered how they would look against a very physical St. Joe’s team. They answered that question soundly, and showed that this group still has music in them.
Hopkins cannot afford another sluggish start like they had against Lehigh, where they got saved by the bell (or in this case horn) against Lehigh and benefitted from a re-group session during the weather delay.
I expect Virginia to take advantage of a rare opportunity to adopt the uner-dog mindset, and come out flying in this game. Hopkins will need to be ready.
Lets look at some of the keys in this one.
I’m going to skip over the most obvious, which is to have a plan for the Shellenberger big/little. That has been the biggest key to every game he has played for the last 4 years, and there is little left to analyze. Hopkins needs to not get demolished in these situations.
The same is true for covering Cormier off-ball. If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m not sure exactly what to say.
Unassisted Midfield Scoring
Matt Collison and Jonathan Peshko combined for 8 goals in the first meeting between these two teams, and they will need to have a similar effort in this one. Virginia’s close defensemen, especially John Schroter and Cole Kastner, are as good as they come. The same can be said for LSM Ben Wayer, who is among the nation’s best.
With that being the case, winning matchups and scoring against the Virginia short-sticks will be very important. I would say they Cavaliers double-team more than they slide, meaning they only go when they think they can create a turnover. Otherwise, they will let their guys play.
Here is an example of Collison agains the short-stick matchup. He is a load to handle.
On a different possession, Hopkins got Jacob Angelus switched onto a short-stick and he went to work. Although not technically a midfielder, the idea is the same: Score unassisted against short-sticks.
The same is true on the other side for a Virginia midfield going against an excellent group of D middies from Hopkins. Virginia needs all the production they can get from players other than Shellenberger and Cormier, and their midfielders will need to find some ways to create offence. With the expectation that Hopkins will remain extremely tight on Cormier, this likely means that the midfielders will need to win matchups and get to the goal.
Schutz got it going early against St. Joes. Normally I’m not a huge fan of trash talk after goals, but I don’t mind it here. Schutz is letting his own bench know that it’s playoff time. The Cavaliers need this, all of this, this afternoon.
Here is another good example from Colsey, being aggressive for his own shot.
Winning the Invert Situations
Something that Hopkins does slightly different than other defences is that they will play a special invert defence. In invert situations, they will play a diamond in front of the goal, with one player specifically designated as the slide man. They used this tactic a lot against Virginia in March.
The advantage of this strategy is that it usually prevents the invert man from scoring himself, as the slider is ready and has only one job.
There are two main disadvantages. The first is that the automatic (or near-automatic) slide potentially mitigates good on-ball defence, and creates offence for the other side. And the second one is that it can be confusing and hard to get into on the fly. Against Lehigh, there were times when it seemed Hopkins was trying to get into the package and just didn’t have time.
In this example, Hopkins doesn’t have time to get into the package, and they seem unsure about who is sliding.
And in this one, they are set up in the package, notice number 12 Brett Martin sitting in front of the goal. But when the pick gets switched, there is some confusion about whether to rotate or to stay in the package, and this lapse leads to a Lehigh goal.
Hopkins may choose not to run this package at all against Virginia. But if they do try to get into it, look for UVA to try to play aggressively in the in-between scenarios in order to capitalize on the confusion.
Fortune Favors the Bold
Offensively, Hopkins needs to be decisive and super aggressive against this UVA defence. Virginia’s length will punish hesitation by the offence. Hopkins needs to dodge hard, and know that slides likely are not coming. If you aggressively step into gaps, there are goals to be had.
Look at this example from the St. Joes game. Toron Eccleston attacks Wayer, knowing that #34 is not sliding.
From the midfield, this is another example. Despite being in the middle of the field, nobody is coming. St. Joe’s presses hard into the gap and scores another one.
Who’s Got Legs
Anyone who has spent time in Baltimore during May knows that it can get hot. And not just any kind of hot, but a sticky, humid type that can really sap the energy from the legs.
Hopkins will play more players than the Cavaliers. Midfielders Collison, Peshko, Dylan Bauer, and Brendan Grimes will all play in different combinations. Then Hunter Chauvette, Casey McDermott, and Jimmy Ayres compete on the second line. Hopkins would obviously take some productivity from their depth middies, but they will be important just to take some of the minutes. With weather being a factor, this will be important.
Virginia will ride Schutz, Colsey, and Boyden harder than most other teams. The fitness level of those players has been remarkable throughout the season, and they seemed to have more juice against St. Joes then were in the ACC tournament. The energy level of that unit will be a major storyline in this game, especially against a deep and talented Hopkins rope unit.
If I am Hopkins, I’m forcing UVA offensive midfielders to play defence as much as possible, and making them work every shift. Sometimes lacrosse is complicated, sometimes it isn’t. This game will depend on how tired that Virginia midfield gets.
X Factors
For Hopkins, I’ll go with Chayse Ierlan. I expect Chayse to be very good today, but he has a chance to go full sicko mode and really launch the game in Hopkins favour. If he can do that, look out.
For UVA, it’s Schutz. He’s the energy of this team at midfield and they need him to score.
Should be a great one in Charm City!