The second of two matchups Saturday matches up two of the three most successful programs in the last decade. If you missed our preview of the Notre Dame game against Georgetown, check it out here.
And our previews of the first round games can be found here.
Since 2013, Duke and Maryland have combined for four championship victories and five runner up finishes.
The only title games that didn’t feature one of these teams was Virginia’s victory over Yale in the 2019 final four. En route to their championship that year, Virginia beat both Maryland (quarterfinal) and Duke (semi final).
Neither squad will be lacking for experience in the big moments.
The last time these clubs met was the 2021 final four, when Maryland put down a dominant performance to win 15-4. Unfortunately for Maryland, only one current member of their team started that day (Goaltender Logan McNaney). Although, he did make 17 saves in the game.
Three Duke starters remain, attackmen Dyson Williams and Brennan O’Neill, and defender Kenny Brower.
These teams are also similar in the fact that they both came off conference tournament losses heading into the NCAA tournament, but responded with decisive victories. Duke beat Utah by 12, and Maryland defeated Princeton 16-8 in a game that many had going in a different direction. It sets up a great contest this coming weekend.
Lets get into some of the keys to game.
Chess Match
Maryland has a decision to make with Ajax Zapitello. He was incredible in the first round against Coulter Mackesy. Ajax plays with great juice, including this fun play at the end of the quarter. Look how fired up he is.
Widely considered the best defender in college lacrosse, logic would suggest that he would cover recent PLL number one draft pick O’Neill.
That still may be the case, but with the potential for Josh Zawada and even Andrew Macadorey to be at attack (Macadorey played attack in the ACC tournament), maybe there is a desire to leave Zapitello on some of the shiftier players. Zawada leads the Blue Devils in assists by a significant margin, might that be enough to warrant a matchup with Ajax? It could be.
In that scenario, the O’Neill matchup could shift to Colin Burlace or Will Schaller. Listed at 6’3, 210 lbs, Burlace could provide a heavier option against O’Neill.
Whatever the decision is, the focus for offensive initiation shifts to whoever is not guarded by Ajax.
Duke has their own decision to make on offence, which is where to play Macadorey. They played him at attack against Notre Dame and Syracuse but back at midfield against Utah. I thought the adjustment gave them more presence behind the net, with the ability for him and Zawada to attack in the big-little game.
With that being said, he was dynamic against the Utes in the midfield. The Terps will need to have a few different plans for him, depending on where he is at.
One of these things is not like the other
Three of the four primary specialists in this game are among the most experienced in the country. Luke Wierman and Jake Naso have both played in National Championship games, and have both separately been named first-team all-americans in different years. Each is now in his final season and this will be a fun matchup at the stripe.
Both players also contributed offensively in the first round, and the two of them have scored a combined 60 points in their careers. The battle will continue long after the whistle with these two.
Meanwhile, McNaney has started two national championship games and was the MVP of the NCAA tournament in 2022. He was great last week against Princeton.
The outlier is Duke goaltender Pat Jamieson, who is just a freshmen. He’s been outstanding this season though, saving 54% of the shots he’s faced. Jamieson was solid last week against Utah, but that was about as convenient of a playoff game as it gets. This will be his first time in the quarterfinals in a neutral site.
Everything we have seen this year suggests that he will handle it well, but you never know how it will go the first time. He will need to be good for Duke.
Do I Stay or Do I Go Now?
Both of these teams benefitted from what I consider to be easy goals in the first round. Limiting these for the opposition will be key for both teams
Maryland was aggressive in transition and off faceoffs and Duke will need to be better in defensive transition than Princeton was. Goals like this are easy ones for the Terps.
Then just minutes later, they scored another easy one on the faceoff, this time a pop out the front.
Duke scored multiple goals by finding open cutters, despite not drawing slides. Utah relies on creating turnovers, but too often they made life too easy on the Blue Devils and created offensive chances by losing off-ball players.
On the first goal, Duke found Dyson Williams.
Then later, Josh Zawada.
These are both good plays by Duke, but Maryland will be sure to be tighter off ball.
Both sides will give up some goals, it’s the “easy” ones that they must avoid.
Speaking of which, the slide decisions throughout the game will be fascinating. Whatever they decide about matchups, Maryland is likely to work hard to keep them, potentially leading to less sliding and limited switching.
Duke, with one of the deepest defensive midfield units in the nation, is likely to switch picks and care less about individual matchups. Maryland plays a positionless style and are still tinkering with their offensive lineups, often shuffling attack and midfielders throughout the game.
One way that Duke may choose to counter that strategy is to play positionless themselves, by switching picks and trying to mitigate the ability for the Terps to create leverage in the pick game.
Maryland used several GLE picks in their game against Princeton, which will be an interesting story. They burned Princeton several times, and Duke has some decisions to make there.
X Factors
For the Terps, it’s Eric Spanos. He will likely draw the Kenny Brower assignment if he again plays attack. That’s a lot of meat and aggression in a 1v1 matchup. Spanos is massive, plays super hard, and has been one of the Terps best players in recent weeks. They need his scoring.
And for Duke, it’s Jamieson. Again, he’s been great, but this is his first taste of legitimately stressful NCAA tournament play.
Stay tuned later today and tomorrow for the rest of the NCAA previews!