Overview:
Evan Schemenauer is a Saskatoon based NLL writer. Random thoughts is a weekly column which outlines a wide variety of thoughts that Evan has on the NLL and lacrosse world!
The opinions in this column are Evan's personal thoughts. They do not reflect the opinions of other members of the LC Daily Staff.
My random thoughts…
We are down to two teams. If you asked anyone at the beginning of the season who the two finalists would be, Buffalo would be high on most people’s lists. Albany certainly wouldn’t be. I tried to think back what the odds on Albany were at the start of this season to win the cup. It was +4000 on a top Canadian gaming website. A $20 bet would pay $820.
Perhaps more surprising was that both series were sweeps.
Thinking back on what went wrong for Toronto and San Diego, we’ll go through the details of the breakdowns in a bit, but I want to put one theory out there to consider from the start. With the number of times Toronto and San Diego have finished at or near the top of the standings, and yet San Diego has won just one playoff game in their history and Toronto hasn’t made the final since 2015, I’m left with one conclusion.
Its my opinion that both teams, who have relied heavily on picking up free agents and trading for older veterans, are simply built to do well in the regular season, but not built to win the title. In a season that is an endurance test, they need to get younger. They need to get faster.
Comparing Buffalo to San Diego and Toronto, Buffalo isn’t that much younger on a mean average basis and 1 year younger than San Diego and 2 years younger than Toronto on a median basis. That on its own isn’t massive. When you look at players that are 29 or older, Toronto and San Diego have two more each than Buffalo. If you move that needle up to 34 or older, Buffalo has three (Vinc, Buchanan and Dawson). Toronto has four. San Diego has five.
Here’s the difference though when you look at Buffalo’s veterans compared to the other two teams, especially when it comes to forwards. They’re faster. They’re in better shape. They’re able to handle the grind better.
Toronto has two first round draft picks in each of the next two years. Almost every time they use a first or second round draft pick, it works out well for them. Toronto has unofficially six UFA’s this summer (Lintner, Matthews, Small, Burns, Hostrawser, Corbeil, Rose). I’m guessing most of those free agents will be back, but there needs to be room made for youngsters to make their way into the lineup.
San Diego’s UFA list is slightly shorter, but it includes Berg, Dobbie, Wardle, Merrill and Poulin. I can’t see Berg going anywhere, and can be franchised, and Poulin’s role means he stays if he decides to keep playing. San Diego has a decent young group up and coming. They’ve been in win now mode for several years and it still hasn’t worked. Its time to focus on building that championship team and not buying it.
Banditland Owns The Rock
While the Rock and Bandits have one of the oldest rivalries in the NLL, its been a bit of a lopsided rivalry the last 11 years. While there have been some close games, Buffalo is a perfect 8-0 against the Rock in their last 8 playoff games after a pair of 12-4 and 10-8 wins this weekend. The last time the Rock beat the Bandits in the playoffs, it was the 2012 quarterfinals.
The weekend started off in the worst way possible for the Rock offence. They had a scoreless first half. That doesn’t happen too often, and it’s even rarer in a playoff game. Buffalo had a 5-0 lead and it wasn’t like the Rock defence or goaltending was to blame here. Three of those goals came in transition. One came from Byrne while the situation was still unsettled and three defenders were still on the floor for the Bandits. The final one came on a desperation shot to beat the shot clock in another unsettled situation.
The problem was the Rock offence. A stingy Bandits defence that was blocking shots all night long (12 by the end of the game) and Matt Vinc playing one of the best games of his career were causing all kinds of havoc. It didn’t help that Vinc appeared to get into the Rock’s head. Their sticks got gripped a little tighter and shots were missing the net en masse.
There could have been a turning point in the second quarter when a Tom Schreiber goal was disallowed on a crease violation, only for the ball to go up the floor and the Bandits scored on transition. Matt Sawyer had used a challenge earlier in the game on a Buffalo goal that was ruled inconclusive upon review, so he only had one challenge left and would have received a delay of game penalty if he was wrong on this challenge. Whether Chris Boushy re-established his feet outside the crease on the Schreiber goal is up for debate, but Sawyer did not challenge. Perhaps it would have been worth it simply because it’s a 2 for 1 decision if Schreiber’s goal counted, and the Bandits goal then taken off the board.
No Rock forward scored until 2:10 into the fourth quarter, that’s how dominant of a performance it was. In fact, if it hadn’t been for some late goals from Corey Small with the game well out of reach, Toronto faced the possibility of having the lowest goal total in one game in the history of the league.
Another stat that sticks out here is just how critical the transition game was for Buffalo. The top offensive performers in game 1, Buchannan, Byrne and Smith with just 4 points each. When I mentioned earlier that Toronto needs to get younger and faster, the transition in game 1 was one sign of this.
In game 2, Toronto finally got the momentum going, thanks to three powerplay goals in the second quarter, shutting out the Bandits that quarter and headed into the locker room with a 6-3 lead. Shutting down the transition game early was a huge benefit to the Rock. When the lead expanded to 8-4 early in the 4th, you could excuse people for looking forward to a game 3. And then the age and fitness played its ugly head again. The Rock defence weren’t getting a body on guys.
If you play back the game highlights, you’ll notice how much time and space the Buffalo offence had on each of those 6 goals down the stretch. Toronto’s offence was just as tired and couldn’t help their defence out.
The Bandits now head to their fourth straight final, looking for the repeat. For the Rock, it’s a disappointing end to what could have been a great season.
It Happened
When I was watching game 2 of the finals between Albany and San Diego, as Albany started to pull away in game 2, the message came across in the group chat a few times… is this really happening?
We need to keep in mind where Albany was a year ago. They finished 3-15. There didn’t seem to be a lot to build off of. Coming into this season, the power rankings had them starting dead last, and dead last by a considerable distance. Its all the more remarkable as to what Glenn Clark has accomplished this season. Its pretty rare in any sport for a team to go from worst to possibly first in one season. We’re talking something similar to what the Vegas Golden Knights pulled off in their first season as a franchise.
Game 1 ended in a 14-12 win for the Firewolves as a 4-goal run by the Seals in the last 5 minutes came up just short. Overall, this isn’t the type of game you would expect the Firewolves to win. Jamieson stopped just 27 of 39 shots. But with the referees clamping down on the little calls, San Diego spent far too much time a man down this game. While the Firewolves’ PP efficiency was only 33% (3 of 9), its better than they’re used to and it make the difference. Key to the offensive output was Alex Simmons, one of the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, with 5 goals and 10 points. No question, Albany had Chris Origlieri scouted well as almost every shot headed in went low.
If you want to watch a thing of beauty in this game though, go back and watch the faceoff battles between Joe Nardella and Trevor Baptiste. Even the “faceoffs don’t matter” crowd has to appreciate those battles that went on for 10-15 seconds at times.
When game 2 came around, shot wise it was the exact opposite of game 1. The Seals outshot the Firewolves 61-46. There were three differences in the Firewolves’ 13-10 win on Sunday. One was Doug Jamieson stealing a game like he’s able to do. Another key was a total lack of discipline by the Seals. Not only did they give Albany 10 powerplay opportunities, Albany converted on five of them. Of those 10 powerplays, 5 of them came from penalties by San Diego’s offence. The third was Albany using their speed to simply wear down an older San Diego team to an even greater extent in game 2.
Nobody believed in the Firewolves at the start of the season. Very few thought they could get past Halifax in the opening round, let alone San Diego this round. They’re playing with house money, and that could just net them a championship in the most unlikely of circumstances.
The Need For Future Thinking
This isn’t something that is secluded to lacrosse itself, but we’ve seen three incidents already in these playoffs where players are frustrated, late in a game, that their season is about to come to an end on, and then do something foolish that is going to have consequences for next season. I sit on the disciplinary committee in another sport and I hate to say how many times this exact thing has happened, it’s the end of the season, someone wants to go out with a bang, only to find out they’re going to miss time at the beginning of the next season.
The first two incidents happened last week at the end of the Halifax vs Albany matchup, in which separate incidents involving David Brock and Jake Withers will see them starting next season on the suspended list. Now I will commend Brock for issuing a public apology. We can all admit we made mistakes and try to make up for them. But the Thunderbirds are going to be missing their team MVP for a bit to start next season in Withers. We saw this season just how tight the unified standings were and how games early in the season can end up being that tiebreak that you need at the end of the season to get into the playoffs.
But then there’s what happened with Austin Staats this past weekend. Staats is a passionate player that plays on the brink. When he’s on the right side of that, that passion turns into momentum and the spark plug the Seals need. When it goes over the line though, that’s when it can cost the Seals dearly.
The play that starts it all off is a major that Staats receives for an illegal body check with 9 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter. The play comes in the middle of the floor, with his opponent receiving a “buddy” pass, having no time to react, and gets absolutely levelled by Staats. This call was the center of a lot of debate that afternoon. A number of players even voiced their support for Staats on this one.
This rule has been a point of contention ever since the infamous Alex Buque hit on Karsen Leung, which ultimately led to the end of Leung’s career. At the time that hit was legal. Soon afterwards, for the sake of player safety, the NLL changed the rule specifically to read (Rule 70):
Officials shall consider the positioning of players when contact is initiated, specifically whether the player being checked is in a vulnerable and/or defenseless position, which may include a player’s head being down or being unaware of an impending hit, and significant distance travelled by the player making the hit. An appropriate penalty for illegal body checking shall be assessed based on the severity of the illegal contact.
League Rule 70
The hit was ruled a major from the onset and was upheld upon review. In my opinion, the officials made the correct call with the full intention of Rule 70 and the issue of player safety being paramount to the call.
His frustration wasn’t finished though. He took a slashing minor with a minute to go in the 3rd, and then with 11 seconds remaining and the game already decided, Staats delivers a cross check to Tony Joaquim that wasn’t penalized, but then wound up and delivers an intentional shot to Joaquim’s head, followed by two more punches to Joaquim’s head while he’s collapsing.
Initially Staats was issued two match penalties and a major. Upon review it was reduced to one match and one major. There should have been a game misconduct added here because of two majors in one game (Rule 38.2), but that’s semantics.
Staats faces some trouble here, and we can break this down into a number of components within the rule book. If the penalties that were called after review stand, what Brian Lemon has to sort out is all of this:
- Rule 41.2 – A player incurring a Match Penalty shall automatically receive a one or two game suspension and shall be subject to further fines and/or suspensions from the League Office.
- Rule 41.3 – If a player receives a match penalty in their team’s last game, they shall receive an additional one (1) game suspension at the start of the next regular season.
- Rule 41.4 – Retroactive to the beginning of the 2017-18 season, the following will apply: Any player who is assessed a second match penalty, a second Dangerous Contact to the Head penalty (Rule 77), or a combination thereof shall be assessed an additional two (2) game suspension. NOTE: Staats does have a previous match penalty since 2017-18.
- Rule 40.1 – In regular season games or Playoff games, any player who incurs a total of three (3) major penalties, excluding fighting majors, will be assessed a game misconduct. For each subsequent two (2) major penalties, excluding fighting, a game misconduct shall be assessed and shall continue as such throughout the season. Note: Staats has two majors this season prior to this past weekend’s games.
- Rule 40.2 – In regular League games or Playoff games, any player who incurs a total of three (3) game misconduct penalties (exclusive of designated categories) shall be suspended for one game.
Now the Seals could be without one of their top offensive weapons for a significant period of time.
The Final Two
We have a battle of two very different teams in the finals this year. A bunch of upstart young players in Albany and a group of playoff experienced Bandits. As much as initially you want to make the Bandits huge favorites, keep in mind, Albany swept the season series 2-0 in the regular season against the Bandits.
If there’s an X factor in these finals, its Doug Jamieson. I’m not going to expect Albany to put up any 12+ goal performances, so Doug shutting the door is going to be critical to give Albany the shot it needs to win.
Unfortunately, MVP Arena in Albany is not available this weekend due to college graduations, so we have a delay in the finals with games 1 and 2 taking place on May 17th and 18th, with game 3 occurring on May 24th if necessary.
If this season has taught us anything, its to expect the unexpected. So buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Thanks, as always for some unbiased Lax reporting.
i might be the only one who said fear the firewolves at the start of the season. they have been targeting teams to trade vets to for draft picks. makes no sense trading for buffalo’s 1st round pick when you can get philly’s. further, they made two mideseason fantastic moves. getting las vegas’s john wagner has been a stroke of genius and deserves to be mentioned for playoff mvp. and then they moved to get playoff talisman anthony joaquim. and they get dyson williams and will johnansen next winter too.
Very informative as always!.Thanks for your writing Evan! I do want to mention Doug Marcus, we frequently chat and, I will take his back…he may have been the only one chatting up Albany.