Overview:
Evan Schemenauer is a Saskatoon based NLL writer. Random thoughts is a weekly column which outlines a wide variety of thoughts that Evan has on the NLL and lacrosse world!
Note: The opinions in this column are Evan's personal thoughts. They do not reflect the opinions of other members of the LC Daily Staff.
My random thoughts…
This past weekend, I put in 1,500 km of driving in 48 hours to see one of the best rivalries in the NLL play out on back-to-back nights. Yes, the driving was tough, but it was worth every bit of it. Heck, it was worth it to see Grandma Rush and a handful of Calgary fans I haven’t seen in a while. Joyce is getting up there in age and its tough for her to get around for games, so we don’t get to see her as often as we would like, but it makes it more special when you do get to see her.
I’ll say it again, the NLL needs to have more of these home and home series like we saw with Calgary and Saskatchewan this weekend. Two teams, both desperate for a playoff spot, both with a history of hatred for one another. Especially home and homes where fans can drive between games. I recall weekends in the past where Toronto and Buffalo would play a home and home on the regular. Where its feasible, each team should have at least one of these per year.
Think about a Toronto vs Ottawa home and home to get the Black Bears fan base riled up to start. A Joe Tsai bowl home and home series between Vegas and San Diego. Now that you don’t get to see the old rivalry games as much as you used to, make them stand out.
And yes, we had sheep crap all over the one end of the turf in Saskatchewan this weekend. I doubt the Rush staff knew that cleaning that up was in their job duties. Perhaps one of the biggest oops for halftime entertainment in recent memory.
We also had another goalie goal from Nick Rose. For those that remember the very first year of Random Thoughts in 2017, when Rose scored twice, he managed to outscore over a quarter of his team. It was a good laugh.
We also had two ridiculous goals in Calgary, one from Christian Del Bianco throwing a ridiculous pass to a covered Harrison Matsuoka, who then in one motion caught and fired the shot home in a full sprint. Followed by one sick goal from Thomas Hoggarth in his return from the IR.
That was only for Stephen Keogh to then put his mark up for play of the week with a ridiculous blind bouncer. I’m leaning towards the Del Bianco to Matsuoka goal as being the play of the week just because of the degree of difficulty from both players to make it happen, but I’m perfectly okay with admiring all three for what they were.
But let’s get to it. The playoff picture is still a mess. At least we do have some clarity on where things lie for a few teams.
Where Everyone Stands
We know that Vegas and Philadelphia are now eliminated. As much as one would love to know exactly what their team needs to do, with 32,768 possibilities out there, we will look at themes and what teams still have to play for.
Unlike in years past where you were looking at what two or three teams need to do to get into the playoffs, this year you’re looking at 9 teams still fighting for four playoff spots, and that really complicates things.
Let’s start simple. Any team that gets to 10 wins is now guaranteed to make the playoffs, and you need at least 10 wins to host a first-round playoff game.
There is also the “boring” scenario that could play out this weekend, in which Saskatchewan, Calgary, Vancouver and Rochester all lose. Buffalo, Halifax and New York would all qualify for the playoffs, and Panther City would also qualify for the playoffs with a win over Albany. There’s a 6.25% chance all four nine-loss teams lose to create this scenario and a 3.13% chance that all 8 playoff teams are determined at the end of this weekend.
Here’s the latest head to head record chart (read left to right for your team). The +1 indicates there is a game to still be played between those teams.
Toronto Rock (13-3)
Remaining Games: Week 20 vs Rochester, Week 21 @ Saskatchewan
- Finishes 1st with a win in either remaining game or a San Diego loss in either of their remaining games.
- Can finish no worse than 2nd
Because of Toronto’s win in San Diego in early March, San Diego has to pass Toronto to finish first. The Rock will get the chance on Saturday evening when they host the struggling Knighthawks.
San Diego (12-4)
Remaining Games: Week 20 @ Saskatchewan, Week 21 vs Vancouver
- Finishes 1st if they win both remaining games and Toronto loses both remaining games.
- Can finish no worse than 2nd.
San Diego has the tiebreak on Albany by virtue of beating the Firewolves in mid-January. San Diego might know by the end of the 1st quarter in their game against Saskatchewan next week that they’re guaranteed to be 2nd overall.
Albany (10-6)
Remaining Games: Week 20 @ Panther City, Week 21 @ New York
- Has clinched a playoff birth.
- Will finish 3rd overall with a win in either remaining game.
- If they lose both remaining games (10-8), it is still possible for Albany to host a first-round playoff game. It involves at least one (preferably both) Georgia or Buffalo losing one game and having the head-to-head tiebreak on certain teams. In this scenario, Albany is head-to-head 2-0 vs Buffalo, 1-0 versus Georgia and Halifax, 1-1 versus New York and 0-1 versus Panther City. A Georgia loss guarantees they are in this tiebreak at 10-8
I wish the third scenario was easier, but I’ve already found a five-way tie in which the third and possibly fourth tiebreak is necessary to decide things.
Georgia (10-7)
Remaining Games: Week 20 Bye, Week 21 vs Rochester
- Has clinched a playoff birth
- Will earn a home playoff game with a win in their final game vs Rochester in week 21
- With a loss in their final game, Georgia can still earn a home playoff game, but need a tiebreak with teams at 10-8. Its helpful if Buffalo and Halifax are in that tiebreak, but Albany and New York are not. They split their season series with Panther City.
With just one game left, Georgia’s scenarios are easier to figure out. The tiebreak on Buffalo really simplifies things for the Swarm.
Buffalo (9-7)
Remaining Games: Week 20 vs Calgary, Week 21 @ Las Vegas
- Will qualify for the playoffs with a win in either remaining game.
- Guaranteed a home playoff game with two wins and one of Albany loses both of their remaining games or Georgia loses their remaining game.
- Cannot host a playoff game without two wins to finish the season.
- If they lose both remaining games, they need to hope the 9th place team has 10 losses, or that Rochester and Saskatchewan are in a 9-9 tiebreak for the playoff spot.
Buffalo has the tiebreak on almost nobody near them, except Saskatchewan and Rochester (2-0). In any scenario where they are tied with Calgary, Calgary beats Buffalo this week and has that tiebreaker. Unless Rochester wins out, Buffalo needs a win or the 9th place team to be at 10 losses.
Halifax (9-8)
Remaining Games: Week 20 Bye, Week 21 vs Colorado
- Is in the playoffs with a win in week 21 vs Colorado
- Is still in the playoffs in 96% of scenarios even with a loss vs Colorado
- For a first-round home playoff game, Halifax needs a win vs Colorado, one, but not both of Georgia and Albany to lose out, and to get at least two of Buffalo, Panther City and New York to 10-8.
- If Halifax loses to Colorado, of the teams that can finish 9-9, Halifax only doesn’t have the tiebreak on Vancouver and Calgary. A situation needs to occur where there is a tie at 9-9 for the last playoff spot, Calgary and/or Vancouver are a part of it, and Saskatchewan and Rochester are not for Halifax to miss the playoffs.
- Can also make the playoffs this week despite not playing if both Calgary and Vancouver lose.
- The main scenario where Halifax misses the playoffs is if Buffalo gets to 10 wins, Calgary and Vancouver get to 9 wins, Saskatchewan and Rochester lose at least once and Panther City beats Albany (whether New York beats or loses to Albany in this scenario is irrelevant for Halifax).
Yes, Halifax is at 9 wins, has just one game left, and there is still that much that can happen to them. Having the tiebreak on so many teams level or below them is very beneficial to the Thunderbirds which is why their odds of missing the playoffs are so slim.
Panther City (8-8)
Remaining Games: Week 20 vs Albany, Week 21 @ Calgary
- Guaranteed a playoff birth with 2 wins in their last 2 games
- With a split of their last two games (9-9), need the 9th place team to be at 10 losses or a tiebreak at 9-9 in which more of Buffalo, New York, Vancouver and/or Colorado are involved, and Halifax, Saskatchewan and Calgary are not involved.
- If they lose both remaining games, need some help that 8 wins is enough for 8th (and possibly 7th) and New York, Vancouver and Colorado are involved in that tiebreak, but Saskatchewan and Calgary are not.
- With 2 wins (10-8) and either Albany losing to New York and/or Georgia losing to Rochester in week 21, it is possible for Panther City to host a playoff game. In this scenario, they have a winning record versus Albany, Buffalo and New York, are even with Georgia and only don’t have a winning record on Halifax.
How critical was that late win by Panther City over Philadelphia on Sunday? We’re talking a very different scenario for them if they lose. Hosting a playoff game is out of the question and they’re struggling to make the playoffs.
New York (8-8)
Remaining Games: Week 20 @ Vancouver, Week 21 vs Albany
- Guaranteed to make the playoffs with wins in both remaining games.
- Can host a 1st round playoff game with two wins (10-8) and two of Albany losing to Panther City in week 20, Georgia losing in week 21 or Buffalo losing either remaining game. In this scenario, they have a winning record versus Albany, Georgia and Buffalo, and don’t have it on Panther City or Halifax.
- Like Panther City, if New Tork splits these last two games (9-9), they need the 9th place team to be at 10 losses to make the playoffs or be in a tiebreak, which includes more of Buffalo, Calgary and Rochester (and Vancouver if their win in their last two is against the Warriors), and less of Halifax and Panther City (and Vancouver if their loss is to the Warriors).
- Like Panther City, they’re in tough to make the playoffs at 10 losses, but its still possible if 8th and possibly 7th are being decided in a tiebreak at 8-10. They would need more of Calgary and Rochester in the tiebreak than Panther City and Vancouver.
New York is in the middle of the pack if it comes to tiebreakers so they might make it and the might not depending who’s in the mix. Its better to just control your own destiny, but beating the red hot Warriors on the west coast won’t be easy.
Vancouver (7-9)
Remaining Games: Week 20 vs New York, Week 21 @ San Diego
- Cannot host a 1st round playoff game
- Not guaranteed a playoff birth with two wins (9-9), but their percentages are high. It really helps their case if Buffalo and Halifax stay at 9 wins. Vancouver have split records against New York and Saskatchewan, but have losing records against Panther City, Calgary and Rochester in a 9-9 tiebreak.
- If Vancouver splits their remaining games, it will be nearly impossible for them to make the playoffs as any tiebreak involving teams that could be at 8-10 (Panther City, New York, Saskatchewan, Calgary, Rochester and Colorado), they either split or lost the season series to. The only way its possible is if the teams in the 8-10 tiebreak only involve Saskatchewan and/or New York, or New York and one other team they lost to once. If its Saskatchewan in the tiebreak, Vancouver still needs to win the common games tiebreak to pass Saskatchewan.
- Vancouver is eliminated for certain if they lose both remaining games.
If you look at the tiebreak chart, you’ll see why the tiebreaks don’t favour Vancouver. The only teams they have the tiebreak on are teams at 9 wins, and New York if the Warriors win this weekend. Vancouver truly needs to win both games, and then hope its enough.
Saskatchewan (7-9)
Remaining Games: Week 20 vs San Diego, Week 21 vs Toronto
- Cannot host a 1st round playoff game
- Not guaranteed a playoff birth by winning both remaining games (9-9), but the percentages are pretty high for them to make it due to only a handful of scenarios where there are more than 8 teams at 9-9 or better.
- Halifax losing their final game would really hurt Saskatchewan’s odds if there was a major 9-9 tiebreak scenario. Saskatchewan wants to avoid Halifax (0-2), Buffalo and Rochester in a tiebreak, and want Panther City in that tiebreak. Vancouver, New York and Calgary were all split.
- An 8-10 tiebreak scenario is also tough for Saskatchewan if its multiple teams, but easier if its just a few. Saskatchewan needs Panther City and/or Colorado in that tiebreak scenario, or, a scenario where the tie is with all of Vancouver, Calgary and New York, and Saskatchewan has the common games tiebreak.
- With two losses, Saskatchewan is eliminated.
Saskatchewan has the most difficult finish to the season, but by the same token, San Diego could know early on in their game on Saturday that they have nothing to play for and its very possible Toronto has nothing to play for in week 21. That could be a major benefit to the Rush. Like Vancouver, its best to win both and hope.
Calgary (7-9)
Remaining Games: Week 20 @ Buffalo, Week 21 vs Panther City
- Cannot host a 1st round playoff game
- Not guaranteed a playoff spot with 2 wins (9-9), but their odds are better than most of getting in. Calgary has a positive or neutral head-to-head record in this scenario against everyone currently ahead of them in the standings except New York. They have a negative head-to-head record with Rochester in the event that Rochester also wins out.
- If Calgary loses one game (8-10), they really need that loss to be against Buffalo and not Panther City. Losing to Panther City puts Panther City at 9 wins and Calgary can’t catch them. They have a positive ratio on Vancouver, neutral on Saskatchewan and are net negative against New York, Rochester and Colorado, with Panther City to be determined.
- With two losses, Calgary is eliminated from the playoffs with certainty.
Rochester (6-9)
Remaining Games: Week 20 @ Toronto, Week 21 @ Georgia, vs Philadelphia
- Cannot host a 1st round playoff game
- Not guaranteed a playoff spot with 3 wins (9-9). If a tiebreak at 9 wins exists for a playoff spot, Rochester desperately needs to avoid Buffalo and/or Halifax being a part of it as they are 0-2 head-to-head against both. They are net positive on Panther City, Vancouver, Saskatchewan and Calgary. They are also net negative against New York.
- If an 8-10 tiebreak for a playoff spot exists, Rochester is in good shape because of their wins against Vancouver, Calgary, Saskatchewan and Panther City. They are net negative against Colorado in the event Colorado wins out.
- With two losses in their last 3 games, Rochester is eliminated.
Rochester has three games left which make their scenarios more abundant, but none of these games are against teams they would be in a tiebreak against for a playoff spot, so its easier to predict their tiebreaker fate. Also because of that, Rochester has less control over its fate and does rely on some help to get in. Rochester is the only team that plays twice in the last week of the season, but the games are spaced apart on Friday and Sunday. The only place where Rochester might control its own fate is that they play in the final game of the regular season, and may know at that time if a win gets them in.
Colorado (5-10)
Remaining Games: Week 20 vs Philadelphia & @ Las Vegas, Week 21 @ Halifax
- Must win all 3 remaining games & get help to make the playoffs
- Can get 8th place (and possibly 7th), but must be at 8-10.
- Need more of New York, Vancouver, Calgary and Rochester to be in the tiebreak than Panther City and Saskatchewan.
Colorado’s odds of winning their 3 remaining games are 12.5%, let alone the odds that 8-10 is good enough and the right teams are in the tiebreak. Their odds were 1.6% going into Sunday’s Panther City v Philadelphia game and Panther City’s win decreases Colorado’s odds further because its less likely that an 8-10 team can qualify. If there’s a silver lining, both teams Colorado plays this weekend have been eliminated from the playoffs.
Enjoy the last two weeks of the NLL regular season. So much will happen that will start to change how the ending works out, and there will only be 256 possible outcomes for week 21, which makes decision trees a little more plausible to work out.
Have fun and if your brain starts to melt from scenario overload, feel free to DM me with any questions.
Until next time…