Overview:
Evan Schemenauer is a Saskatoon based NLL writer. Random thoughts is a weekly column which outlines a wide variety of thoughts that Evan has on the NLL and lacrosse world!
Note: The opinions in this column are Evan's personal thoughts. They do not reflect the opinions of other members of the LC Daily Staff.
My random thoughts…
First off, a big congratulations to Teddy Cordingley, equipment manager for the Bandits, on his 300th game with the Bandits. There aren’t many people in the league that have as big of a heart as him.
Ryan Benesch
I have to start this week by congratulating one of my favorite players in the NLL, Ryan Benesch, on passing Dan Dawson for 4th place overall in career NLL goals. He now has 552 goals after scoring twice in the Thunderbirds’ 12-9 win over Rochester.
Beni started the season 40 goals behind Dawson and was in a virtual tie with Dane Dobbie for 6th (he passed Colin Doyle for 5th earlier this season). The ask for Beni to move up this far was tremendous, considering he had told several media outlets that this was his last season when the season began. He’s now 39 years old and sits tied for 5th in league goals this season. The oldest player ahead of him is Josh Byrne who is 29. Beni’s 41 goals puts him on pace for 46, which would tie his 2nd best season ever.
It’s even more stunning that Beni has played for 9 NLL teams, despite the stats he puts up. This is a guy who is sneaky good. He doesn’t have any elaborate goal celebration which is why he’s likely so under the radar. A typical Benesch game is one where the average fan might not notice him, but upon review after the game, he’s put up 7 points.
But even more than that, Beni is just a friendly, stand up guy. The only bad word I’ve ever heard about him is how slow he gets off the floor.
Let’s not forget, Beni is also 7th in career points, and if he plays another season like the one he has this year, he would move up to 5th, and possibly 4th in career points (Beni has 1,291 with 2 games remaining this season, Josh Sanderson is at 1,357, Shawn Evans is at 1,358 and Colin Doyle is at 1,384).
I really hope this isn’t Beni’s last season because he’s playing so well. He doesn’t play much in the summer anymore, getting the required games in to play for the Ladner Pioneers and then helping them win the last two Presidents’ Cups. Yes, he’ll be 40 years old next year, but as long as his body can handle another year or two and he’s playing that well, he should keep going.
I recall talking to Jeff Shattler as to why he kept playing all those years, and one of the main motivators was he wanted his two boys to remember him playing. Perhaps that’s the incentive for Benesch. Parker attends as many games as he can, and maybe another year or two he’ll remember those games better in life.
And let’s keep in mind, Beni has yet to win an NLL Cup. I certainly hope he gets one before he retires.
Who is the MVP?
Last year I had the opportunity to vote in the league end awards. I’ve been thinking about my votes in the various categories, who’s in, who’s close. Granted the last three weeks of the season can still have an influence on those top 5 and also who does the #1 vote go to.
At Lacrosse Flash we had unanimous support for the concept of a Forward of the Year Award. The PLL does have a separate award for each position, including attack. This way you can debate who is the MVP without it hanging over your head that a forward won’t get an award without them getting the MVP. Last year the writers ignored that point in their vote for Christian Del Bianco winning the award.
Here’s my dilemma. At this point in the season, I have a list of 6 players I’m considering for the MVP. Rose, Teat, Withers, Byrne, Berg & Doug Jamieson. Three of those aren’t forwards, and Rose and Withers are really making a case for that #1 vote this season.
Even now, the NLL could decide to add a Forward of the Year. The ballots aren’t out yet and I think most writers would appreciate the addition of the award. I really hope this happens. Its easily possible the top forward in the league goes home without an award once again.
The Playoff Race
Its been another week and we’re not much closer to determining who is in and who is out. The only thing we saw was that Philly is near elimination.
Where we can start to look at things now is two-fold. Who is in, and who might be hosting a first round playoff game.
Let’s start with this. According to Graeme Perrow, with the 16+ million scenarios that can still happen, Georgia and Halifax make the playoffs in 98% of scenarios. That means, with 98% accuracy, Toronto, San Diego, Albany, Georgia and Halifax are in the playoffs. That leaves us with the following for the last three spots and the teams they have the tiebreak on within this group:
- Buffalo 8-7
- Remaining games: @ Colorado, vs Calgary, @ Las Vegas
- Panther City 7-7
- Remaining games: @ San Diego, vs Philadelphia, vs Albany, @ Calgary
- New York 7-8
- Remaining games: @ Rochester, @ Vancouver, vs Albany
- Saskatchewan 6-8
- Remaining games: @ Calgary, vs Calgary, vs San Diego, vs Toronto
- Calgary 6-8
- Remaining games: vs Saskatchewan, @ Saskatchewan, @ Buffalo, vs PCLC
- Rochester 6-8
- Remaining games: vs New York, @ Toronto, @ Georgia, vs Philadelphia
- Vancouver 6-9
- Remaining games: vs Halifax, vs New York, @ San Diego
- Colorado 5-9
- vs Buffalo, vs Philadelphia, @ Las Vegas, @ Halifax
The tiebreaks from this group look like this. NOTE: READ THIS CHART FROM LEFT TO RIGHT TO SEE YOUR TEAM. NOT UP OR DOWN.
Because of various results, it is starting to look more likely that a team at 9-9 will make the playoffs without a requirement of a tiebreaker, but that’s not absolute. The odds are increasing that a team at 8-10 can sneak in with a tiebreaker.
The one thing that will decide things potentially this weekend is the Calgary vs Saskatchewan double header. Both teams are at 6-8 and if either gets swept, their options are very limited. If they split, both are 7-9 and it means sweeping your last two to get into the playoff race.
If either team is swept, they would have to win out, hope the 8-10 tiebreaker exists, and hope the teams they’re tied with are the ones they have tie tiebreaker on and/or the ones they split the series with this season.
I was asked this week what Vancouver’s situation looks like now that they’ve won 4 out of their last 5 games, and it looks a lot better. Oddly enough, I found a scenario if Vancouver wins its remaining three games, they could finish in 4th place. If they lose one game, its still possible to make the playoffs at 8-10, but it’s a tiebreak situation with multiple teams and the Warriors need to hope that teams they beat are in that tiebreak scenario. A loss to New York a week from now likely means the end of them if the Riptide are in the same tiebreak scenario. If their sole loss is to Halifax or San Diego, there is an outside shot with tiebreakers.
If you’re Vancouver, you want Buffalo (and longshot Philadelphia) in your tiebreak scenario and avoid Rochester, Panther City and Calgary. They split the two games against both Georgia and Saskatchewan. Halifax and New York are to be determined. For those reasons, Vancouver needs wins and getting in at 8-10 doesn’t work well in most circumstances.
Could Colorado still get in when they’re currently 5-9? The answer is yes. But for them to get to 9-9, there is only a 6.25% chance. Colorado’s tiebreak future is a bit better than Vancouver’s as they have the tiebreak on Vancouver, Calgary, New York and Rochester. At 8-10, they might get in, but losing this weekend to Buffalo puts them in a world of hurt as you’ve just catapulted another team to 9 wins that you can no longer catch.
Panther City also has a double header this weekend, and while the opponents won’t change much (other than a win vs Philly eliminated Philly for certain). If Panther City wins twice, we’re talking about them likely being in the playoffs. If they lose twice, they’re in need of a sweep or a tiebreaker at 8-10. If they split, the world of possibilities is endless.
Buffalo puts itself into the category of almost in (if not for certain in) with a win this weekend.
There are 16,777,216 possible outcomes at the moment, and that reduces to 32,768 possibilities after this weekend. Hopefully next week, a few more teams make the playoffs, a few more teams are eliminated and we can focus the playoff race on just a handful of teams. But if Calgary and Saskatchewan split, Colorado beats Buffalo, Vancouver beats Halifax, Rochester beats New York, Las Vegas beats Georgia and Panther City splits, we have chaos.
The Wings
With Philly’s two losses, and a 1-8 record at home, it was a tough week for Paul Day, especially having to face the media afterwards.
Several Wings’ fans have been after Day for a while now, calling on Wings upper management to fire him. One of them went as far to put on a paper bag with a sign to fire Day. In part I get their frustration, and any team in Philly with a losing record is going to hear it loud and clear from fans. But let’s reflect on the last year.
First of all, Trevor Baptiste made the decision close to the start of the season that he was relocating out west and requested a trade. That was a huge hole to fill, especially so close to the season. Day obliged, although he didn’t have much of a choice. Philly’s faceoff percentage was horrible until they brought in Nick Rowlett to stop the bleeding. The only issue with that became that Rowlett is a true FOGO, and it means you’re running with 9 D, your transition game starts to suffer. Yes I would rather have a FOGO to get the ball back but it comes at a cost. The Wings even went with 6 forwards in the game on Saturday to help correct for that.
On top of that, they started the season with Riorden and Cattoni on the IR. Shewell, LeClair, Wagner, Minichello and Ganton all spent time on the IR. Matt Rambo went to the hold out list. I doubt Day had the same lineup twice in a row this season.
Yes every GM and head coach has their challenges. What they do to fix them doesn’t always pay off.
But every Philly fan, especially those that were all over him, needs to watch his post-game interview on Saturday. He didn’t shy away from the tough questions, and he even broke down at one stage. The guy gives a crap under tough circumstances. He did what he could to change things up. The players didn’t respond.
I have a ton of respect for Paul Day. You don’t build four straight Mann Cup title teams without a ton of talent. Some of my favorite GM conversations pre-season when I was on Lax Class were with Paul Day and the insight he could provide on his team. When he went through the expansion draft, people wondered what he was thinking. Season two of the new Wings, we realized exactly what he was thinking as the team shot up the standings. He also had time to chat.
If I’m the Wings organization, I would scale back Day’s duties to either Head Coach or GM and let him focus 100% of his time on one position. But if they let him go completely, I’m certain the next team that has a GM or a Head Coach position open will pick up the phone and get Day in for an interview.
And for all the Philly fans that still aren’t impressed, if he leaves, he leaves with giving you one heck of a parting gift; the draft pick he got for Taggert Clark, who barely played in Philly, and that draft pick is probably a top 4 pick.
Maybe it sounds harsh to Philly fans, but Paul Day is a guy I want in my corner any day.
Broadcasts
The NLL has operated on the premise that individual teams are responsible for selecting the broadcast crew for their local market, with the league having a few broadcast teams for linear TV and/or Twitter games. What this leads to is some very experienced crews in some markets, some less experienced crews that have considerable lacrosse knowledge in some markets and broadcasters that simply don’t understand the game, the strategies and the rules.
When you look at the top broadcast teams, they’ve done their homework. They’re looking at the pronunciation guides provided by the league and/or Graeme Perrow and are asking teams about hard to pronounce names, and they’re studying game film to know teams’ tendencies. Others aren’t putting that kind of work in, and even calling out the wrong names.
It’s a treat listening to knowledgeable broadcasts. It is painful listening to others. To be honest, I found out the radio broadcast in one game with a more knowledgeable broadcaster was nearly timed to the video feed, so I muted the video feed and had a more enjoyable experience listening to the radio PXP.
Where I’m getting to on this is that the NLL needs to start investing in its broadcasts more if it truly wants to be “the next major league.” What the NLL needs to do is to have 7 broadcast crews that can rotate around and are hired by the league, not the individual teams.
If they’re hired by the teams, there can be, and sometimes is, pressure from that team to make them look in a good light. If they’re hired by the league, they can then broadcast from different locations and they can be neutral. I don’t have an issue if certain broadcasters are in certain geographical areas to save on travel time and costs, just as TSN does currently with an east and west broadcast teams. The NLL already has a system to rotate officials to different markets. They can do the same with broadcasters if the will is there.
This is already done to an extent with Pat Gregoire, Jake Elliott and Brad Challoner working with two different crews, and John Gurtler, Craig Rybczynski and Cody Janzen doing dual TV and radio duties.
And if you ask that there can be more than 7 games in a weekend, it’s already commonplace with the broadcasters that work with two different partners work two games in a weekend. It’s simple enough on weekends with 9 games that two crews would work two games on different nights, as long as there are enough crews to cover off all the games in one night.
Double Header Weekend
I’ll be on a whirlwind of a weekend as I need to be in Calgary for other business, so I’ll be at the Saddledome with the family on Friday night, then making the 7-hour drive to Saskatoon Saturday morning to get back for the tail end of the Roughnecks and Rush. And yes, thanks to a handful of readers, Vasyli now has jerseys to keep or borrow for the Rush’s last three home games.
Until next time…
Philly fans can rest easy. You will see a mutual parting of the ways at the conclusion of the season.