On Wednesday night, lacrosse fans will be treated to a big time contest as Duke travels up to the JMA Wireless (Carrier!) Dome.
This game represents an interesting trend in college lacrosse, which is the proliferation of matchups outside of Saturdays. Just this season, Syracuse will play Utah, Army, Duke, and Cornell all in the middle of the week.
Cuse is the perfect test case for this. With enough of a local fan base to fill their venue, and the prominent role that Syracuse has in the sports media landscape, Syracuse is the team that can both financially withstand this sort of schedule, and can use it to their benefit.
Yes, midweek games are nothing new, but what is relatively new is top ten matchups during the week and teams taking weekends off due to their midweek games. Ivy League teams for example are pretty much required to play midweek games due to their late start, but those are in addition to the full weekend schedule.
Last year, the Orange played twice during the week, once against Hofstra, and once against St. Bonaventure. No disrespect to those programs, but it’s a major shift.
Syracuse has at least two full weekends off this season. Between Wednesday contests against Utah and Army, they did not play. And following the April 2 game against Cornell (Tuesday), they do not play again until April 13 against UNC. That break will be needed, as they play at Notre Dame and at Cornell in the span of four days.
In terms of the classic student-athlete experience, I think this is a tough adjustment. College athletics are designed primarily around Saturday games. Athletes miss no class for home contests and only one day for road trips. Saturdays are for games and a little fun. Sundays are for recovery (whatever that means to you), and homework.
But the classic student-athlete experience is a blurry vision now. Midweek games are good for lacrosse on a national scale. When every game starts at 1 PM Saturday, the lacrosse community is split between their various allegiances. Major contests during the middle of the week present interesting television opportunities. The vast majority of the lacrosse world will watch tonight. That creates the possibility for big audiences, viral moments, and critical mass.
In the new age, this creates opportunities for players to build their brands and eventually capitalize on it. Syracuse is one spot behind Denver and one spot ahead of Penn State in the USILA poll. There is absolutely no question that the average lacrosse fan will recognize Syracuse and their players to a far greater extent. Obviously there are several reasons for this including fanbase, history, and tv networks (Denver for example is not on ESPN.)
But several times this year, the lacrosse world has sat down to watch the Orange play. I don’t think there is any question that this has been a factor in the growing brand and presence of this group.
Ok, enough about the schedule, lets get into the actual game.
Both of these teams are prolific on both sides of the ball. Both have top five scoring offences, both have huge but somewhat exaggerated scoring margins, and both have elite scoring differences. Syracuse has played as many good teams as anyone in the country, and finally found a big win against Hopkins.
Meanwhile Duke is already more than halfway through their schedule, and have played an unusually light schedule by their standards. As of today, the Blue Devils have only played three of their nine games against teams in the top 20, and none higher than Penn (12) who they lost to.
The below table shows the national ranks for each team.
| Duke | Statistic | Syracuse |
| 1st | Scoring Offence | 4th |
| 1st | Scoring Margin | 3rd |
| 35th | Powerplay | 22nd |
| 28th | Penalty-Kill | 18th |
| 13th | Faceoff | 3rd |
| 33rd | Clearing Percentage | 26th |
| 4th | Assists | 3rd |
| 4th | Scoring Defence | 11th |
| 2nd | Shooting Percentages | 15th |
Here are some key storylines to watch for tonight.
Kohn vs Naso
This has to be the most important story of the game. Aside from having major implications on the outcome of the game, this could have major implications on end of season awards, as both Mason Kohn and Jake Naso will be in the mix for the top All-American team.
Two numbers that jumped out to me in prepping for this matchup were the shooting percentage (19th in the nation) and defensive efficiency (18th in the nation, according to Lacrosse Reference) by Syracuse. While those are strong metrics in their own right, Syracuse has the number four scoring offence and number 11 scoring defence. This discrepancy between their percentages and raw numbers seems to suggest that Cuse has been dominating the possession battle this season.
Naso was last year’s first-team all-american, but has lost a few matchups this season including last game against Richmond. If he can even out the possession battle or even win it for Duke, Syracuse will have some realities to deal with that they haven’t confronted much this year?
Who guards the big man?
Obviously, any game plan against Duke starts with how you want to play Brennan O’Neill. For Syracuse, the next question is who will cover him.
The two likely options are Caden Kol and Billy Dwan. Kol is a righty and a solid coverman, but is listed at just 6’1 and 215 lbs. Dwan stands at 6’4, 220 lbs. The problem is that Dwan is a lefty, and trying to contain O’Neill with a v-hold seems like a losing proposition.
In last year’s game, Cuse was quick to switch and double O’Neill in the high wing. That was under a different defensive regime though, so it will be interesting to see how the Orange play him. Penn had success against him by limiting his touches and forcing him to catch it further out. Cuse will likely look to do the same.
Aside from the punishing sweeps from the wing, the big thing you have to watch for is skip feeds from Josh Zawada. O’Neill has crazy range, and seems to like shooting from his off side of the field more than most. Finding him off-ball when you’re tired and pre-occupied with his dodges is a tall task for any defender.
As always, O’Neill’s success will depend more on how he shoots and how aggressive he is than any defence. His scoring is still at a crazy clip this season, but it feels like we are still waiting for the heisman moment against a good team. Orange fans should hope it doesn’t come tonight.
Can Cuse get Spallina away from Brower?
When the all-american lists are released at the end of the year, the first team defence will probably be Army’s AJ Pilate, Maryland’s Ajax Zappitello, and Duke’s Kenny Brower.
It’s only March, and Joe Spallina will soon have gone toe-to-toe with all of them.
Brower is a beast, and like Pilate, he’s a lefty. In theory, he’s the perfect sort of defender to bang with Spallina.
Cuse has morphed their offence throughout the season, starting with several picks for Spallina early in possessions, transitioning to midfield sweeps, and against Hopkins they ran significant invert.
Whatever they run, getting Spallina onto short sticks or even other poles will be crucial. This isn’t taking anything away from number 22. The kid is tough as nails, incredibly mature, and is one of the best players in the nation. But so is Brower, and the more Joey can avoid him the better.
Which Cuse Middie is Going to Pop?
The Orange have one of the deepest midfield groups in the country, but some fans might be surprised to see that all of their individual numbers are lower than one might expect.
The reason why this hasn’t hurt Syracuse is because their midfielders never slump at the same time. Early in the season, Michael Leo had hat-tricks in two of the first three games. He has 5 goals in his last four games. Sam English picked up the slack, and has 8 of his 13 points in the last four games. Finn Thomson is still working his way out of a shooting slump, but has goals in his last five.
Meanwhile Jake Stevens was the star against Hopkins and is playing more and more on the offensive side of the ball. All of these guys would like to be shooting better than they are, and history suggests that all of them will. Which one will pop? And when?
This will be the question tonight.
Can Zawada win behind the goal?
After Penn beat Duke, I discussed how Duke’s offence was too heavily weighted to playing above the goal. Of all their players, many of them are best above the goal. The difference recently has been the play of Josh Zawada, specifically behind the goal.
He’s a great feeder with obvious eyes for Dyson Williams and others in the middle. But recently, Zawada has become aggressive as a dodger behind the goal, scoring several unassisted goals. Against Princeton, he repeatedly took his man to the rack, and it gives Duke a great change up to O’Neill and their plethora of hard dodging midfielders.
It looks like this:
And this:
Unless I am completely wrong (highly possible), it would figure to be Sophomore Riley Figueiras on Zawada. If Figueiras regularly needs slides or allows Zawada to score easily from behind the goal, it will be a long night.
Zawada can score in different situations, but behind the goal is most important for Syracuse. If they can win below the goal-line, they should have success.
Enjoy the game! Make sure to do it responsibly though, just like the players. Tomorrow is a school day after all!