Overview:
Evan Schemenauer is a Saskatoon based NLL writer. Random thoughts is a weekly column which outlines a wide variety of thoughts that Evan has on the NLL and lacrosse world!
Note: The opinions in this column are Evan's personal thoughts. They do not reflect the opinions of other members of the LC Daily Staff.
My random thoughts…
This NLL season more than any before has continued to amaze me. You’ll always hear coaches say don’t take a team for granted or there’s no such thing as a guaranteed win. But this season you can truly say that. If we were filling out March Madness brackets with NLL games, our brackets wouldn’t last too long.
One and two seeds would be falling off by the opening weekend. If you’re the Toronto Rock, you’re probably hoping that you have one or two rounds in the playoffs before you meet up with the Bandits. A first-round, winner-take-all matchup isn’t looking that great. The exact same could be said for Albany wanting to avoid Rochester in the opening round.
For the remainder of the schedule, we will see games every weekend that will make the difference a month from now as to who is in and who is out. Buffalo vs Panther City, Saskatchewan vs both New York and Georgia. Then you’ll have games like Rochester vs Colorado and Philadelphia vs Vancouver where a Knighthawks or Wings’ loss is a major lost opportunity.
The belief is that a team needs to be 9-9 to make the playoffs in the unified standings, or at absolute worst, 8-10 and winning a tiebreak. This week, New York and Calgary drop to 9 losses with a loss and puts them on the brink. Saskatchewan has the potential to be at 8 losses if they’re swept, or above 0.500 with a sweep.
One side note, for those of you playing Who Ya Gott, you’ll notice that the Saskatchewan vs Philadelphia game next week isn’t on the board. Because the game is outside the Friday to Monday window, it won’t be included in the picks.
For Emily
We must start with the true highlight of the week. Regardless of anything else that happened in the NLL, the biggest highlight was Marshal King returning to the Desert Dogs lineup for the first time since the death of his wife Emily just before the season began. Emily had a rare form of bone cancer that had previously required amputation and unfortunately couldn’t be cured.
Marshal’s devotion to Emily is to be admired and its certainly something most people would have a tough time dealing with, let alone someone in their early to mid 20’s. I’m almost double Marshal’s age, and I would have a tough enough time adjusting if my wife died.
When Marshal took time away from the game, it was 100% understandable. I was hoping we would see him back this year, but you can never be certain. Lacrosse is the medicine game, and hopefully Marshal’s return is the medicine he needs to help him on his road to recovery. It was perhaps even more fitting that his return was in Vancouver, where his friends and family could make the trip to support him.
I hope this weekend in San Diego that if Marshal breaks through with a goal, that the fans applaud and help support him as well. Sometimes life is bigger than the game, and sometimes its the game that can help bring you back.
Bizarre Stats
For those of us stats geeks, this week provided some anomalies that we don’t see too often. The first one was Casey Jackson and scoring 8 times off just 14 shots, and still losing the game. There was a question posed in the group chat that if 3 goals are a hat trick and 6 are a sock trick, what are 9 goals called? A shirt trick? A pants trick? A shoe trick? Then someone said it best, it’s a “double that guy already” trick.
Then there was the goaltending display that went on in Calgary in which the Seals beat the Roughnecks 7-6. It didn’t break the record for the fewest combined goals in a game (11), but it did tie a record for the fewest goals allowed in a loss. Christian Del Bianco will end up recording a loss, despite 7 goals allowed and a save percentage of 0.885, which has to be close to the record for highest save percentage in a loss.
When you limit your opponent to 7, you should expect to win and if you only score 7, you should expect to lose. With the loss, Calgary moves to 8 losses, and that could determine their fate in a month. For the Seals, the stats wise unexpected win pushes them closer to a home playoff game and keeps them within reach of first place.
Then there was the Saskatchewan vs New York game where there wasn’t a single penalty called until 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, and only one penalty called on each team the entire game. It wasn’t that the refs were letting things go though. There really wasn’t much to call. Also, just as surprising, the final score was 17-15, 31 total goals allowed by both starting goaltenders (plus one EN), and neither goaltender was ever pulled from the game except for extra man situations.
The combined 0.680 save percentage and Cam Dunkerley’s 0.619 save percentage for a near complete game (outside of the approximately 1 minute he was pulled at the end for the extra man) has to be amongst the lowest of the season, or perhaps for several years. That in itself is an unusual stat. If you, like the Rush, only mustered 43 shots on goal and allowed 15 goals, your odds of winning the game are next to none.
Tiebreak Scenarios
As usual, starting with 3 weeks to go, I’ll start to break down the various routes for each team to make the playoffs. At first, I thought that with the unified standings, this year would be a lot simpler because everyone has played everyone else at least once. But its not that simple. Some teams will have played one another twice, and if that’s split, things get complicated. They can also get complicated if there’s a 3- or 4-way tie for a playoff spot. First, let’s get familiar with the tiebreak rules, which are different this time around because there are no divisional tiebreakers in play like there were last year.
In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, the tiebreak rules are as follows:
- Head-to-head winning % amongst all tied teams.
- Winning % amongst common opponents played an equal number of times (boy do I wish we had the divisional tiebreak, this one’s not fun to break down)
- Head-to-head goal differential
- Strength of victory (the win % of all the teams you beat)
- Strength of schedule (win % of all the teams you played)
- League wide goal differential (GD in all games you played)
- Goals For
- Goals Against (not sure why this is here, if goal differential is tied and goals for is tied, goals against must be tied)
- Coin toss
There shouldn’t be a situation where the teams go beyond the second tiebreak and even more unlikely past the third tiebreak. To explain the second tiebreak, if two teams were tied and split their head-to-head, we then need to look at all the teams those two teams played the same amount of times.
If both teams played a team outside the tiebreak once, that game counts towards the tiebreak. If they both played the same team twice, both games count towards the tiebreak. But any teams one team played once and the other played twice don’t count. If this got expanded to a 3-way tie, you’re only looking at the games all three teams played once, or in an extremely rare event, teams that all three teams played twice. I already have a spreadsheet ready to go to dig through all that.
There will also be the complication with this year’s scenarios that because of the unified standings, its quite possible that multiple teams will be close to one another for both playoff spots and positioning. In the divisional format, you normally only had to worry about who was ahead of who in the division and it simplified the number of teams you were looking at. Not so much anymore.
What I want to look at this week is which teams already have a tiebreak on others, which ones they don’t have the tiebreak on and which ones still have to be determined, so you the reader have a better idea of which opponents your team wants to avoid being in a tiebreak with. For simplicity, I’m going to exclude Colorado, Vancouver and Vegas because the odds of them making the playoffs are so remote at this stage. Also note, these are strictly head-to-head tiebreakers. Teams might not have the tiebreak on these opponents if a 3rd or 4th team join the tiebreak.
Also to note, where the record against a team is in brackets, eg. (1-0), that’s an opponent the team will face twice this season.
Toronto Rock (11-3)
Have the tiebreak on: San Diego, Georgia, Panther City, Philadelphia
Don’t have the tiebreak on: Buffalo (0-2)
To be determined: Albany, Rochester, Saskatchewan, Halifax (1-0)
Note: Calgary & New York cannot catch Toronto
The fact that the Rock don’t have the tiebreak on Buffalo shouldn’t be a concern because its unlikely that they’ll be in a tie with Buffalo in the standings. The tiebreak on San Diego gives them a nice cushion for the #1 seed. The upcoming game against Albany has the potential though to be a battle for the #1 seed.
San Diego (10-4)
Have the tiebreak on: Albany, Halifax, Georgia, Rochester, Philadelphia, Calgary (2-0)
Don’t have the tiebreak on: Toronto, Buffalo, New York
To be determined: Saskatchewan, Panther City (1-0)
The two keys for the Seals at the moment are Toronto and Albany. Having the tiebreak with Albany might mean the difference between having home floor advantage in the semis. Not having the tiebreak on Toronto makes it more difficult for the Seals to launch themselves into first place, unless Albany joins them in a 3 way tie.
Albany (10-4)
Have the tiebreak on: Halifax, Buffalo (2-0), Georgia, Saskatchewan, Philadelphia
Don’t have the tiebreak on: San Diego, Rochester (0-2)
To be determined: Toronto, Panther City, Calgary, New York (1-0)
Not much to add here on the situation with Toronto and San Diego. Having the tiebreak on a number of teams at 6 losses (Halifax, Buffalo, Saskatchewan) is helpful to the Firewolves should they slip in the final month.
Halifax (8-6)
Have the tiebreak on: Buffalo (2-0), Panther City, Saskatchewan (2-0), New York
Don’t have the tiebreak on: San Diego, Albany, Georgia, Calgary
To be determined: Toronto (0-1), Rochester (1-0), Philadelphia (1-1)
Halifax has a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to tiebreak scenarios when it comes to making the playoffs as its 50/50 on which opponent they’ll have the tiebreak on. As for getting a home playoff game, they might be relegated to going after the #4 spot given they don’t have the tiebreak on San Diego or Albany.
Buffalo (7-6)
Have the tiebreak on: Toronto (2-0), San Diego, Rochester (2-0), Saskatchewan
Don’t have the tiebreak on: Albany (0-2), Halifax, Georgia, New York
To be determined: Panther City, Philadelphia, Calgary
There’s more possibilities in play for teams that have 5-7 games left as opposed to 3-4. Buffalo is the first on the list in the 5-7 category. Tiebreaks on Saskatchewan and Rochester will be handy when it comes to making the playoffs. Not having the tiebreak on Georgia and Halifax will make it considerably more difficult for the Bandits to start the playoffs at home.
Georgia (8-7)
Have the tiebreak on: Halifax, Bufalo, Calgary
Don’t have the tiebreak on: Toronto, San Diego, Albany, New York, Philadelphia
To be determined: Saskatchewan, Rochester (1-0), Panther City (1-1)
Georgia is the only team on this list with just 3 games remaining, and one of those is this weekend against Saskatchewan. Georgia really controls its own fate here because wins in their upcoming games and the issue of making the playoffs goes away. But losses in the upcoming weeks only adds to the number of teams they’ll be fighting for a playoff spot with, and only ads further to the list of teams they don’t have the tiebreak on.
Rochester (6-6)
Has the tiebreak on: Albany (2-0), Panther City, Saskatchewan, Calgary
Doesn’t have the tiebreak on: San Diego, Buffalo (0-2)
To be determined: Toronto, Halifax (0-1), Georgia (0-1), New York, Philadelphia
Rochester has been the ultimate up and down team this year. They hold a number of critical tiebreaks on teams that surround them like Panther City and Saskatchewan. They have the chance to add to that with Georgia and Philadelphia in the coming weeks.
Panther City (6-7)
Has the tiebreak on: New York
Doesn’t have the tiebreak on: Toronto, Halifax, Rochester, Saskatchewan
To be determined: San Diego (0-1), Albany, Buffalo, Georgia (1-1), Philadelphia (1-0), Calgary
Panther City’s roster of teams it doesn’t have the tiebreak on is significant and that means they need to control their own destiny and get critical wins to make the playoffs.
Saskatchewan (5-6)
Has the tiebreak on: Panther City
Doesn’t have the tiebreak on: Albany, Halifax (0-2), Buffalo, Rochester
To be determined: Toronto, San Diego, Georgia, New York (1-0), Philadelphia, Calgary (2 games to play)
It’s tough to read much into Saskatchewan’s tiebreak scenarios just yet with 7 games remaining. But Halifax, Buffalo and Rochester already being on the list of teams they don’t have the tiebreaker with isn’t helpful. Like Panther City, Saskatchewan likely needs to put its fate into its own hands.
New York (6-8)
Has the tiebreak on: San Diego, Buffalo, Georgia, Calgary
Doesn’t have the tiebreak on: Halifax, Panther City (note: can’t catch Toronto)
To be determined: Albany (0-1), Rochester, Saskatchewan (0-1), Philadelphia (1-1)
A loss to Saskatchewan this weekend would not only ensure that the Riptide don’t have the tiebreak with the Rush, but it puts them at 9 loses. There is some hope however with the Riptide having more teams near them in the tiebreak column instead of the no tiebreak column.
Philadelphia (5-7)
Has the tiebreak on: Georgia
Doesn’t have the tiebreak on: San Diego, Albany, Toronto
To be determined: Halifax (1-1), Buffalo, Rochester, Panther City (0-1), Saskatchewan, New York (1-1), Calgary (1-1)
The Wings’ scenarios will play out this next month. The teams they don’t have tiebreaks on are well ahead of them in the standings and only Georgia near them is decided. Philly truly does control its own destiny in the final 6 games.
Calgary (5-8)
Has the tiebreak on: Halifax
Doesn’t have the tiebreak on: San Diego (0-2), Georgia, Rochester, New York (note: can’t catch Toronto)
To be determined: Albany, Buffalo, Panther City, Saskatchewan (2 games remaining), Philadelphia (1-1)
Not only is Calgary at 8 losses, the list of teams they don’t have the tiebreak on is growing. Its going to be really tough for Calgary to get in at 8-10 so they need to catapult themselves to 9-9.
Silly Vasyli
My youngest son is a social introvert like myself. When he wants to express himself, he typically does it through comedy. As I’ve written before, this year he’s got himself into finding apparel for the opposing team at the SaskTel Centre and becoming their biggest fan that night. With the Rush not playing so well at home coming into this weekend, its worked in his favour most of the time.
This week he got the royal treatment from the New York Riptide. They brought him a jersey. Then the team autographed it for him and they even gave him an Epoch team embroidered shaft. He already has a head he’s going to use it with so it will be in use a month from now when field season starts. A big thanks to the Riptide for all their hospitality. It really made Vasyli’s weekend.
The Riptide may have lost, the first time any team lost when he had the opponent’s jersey on, but he was loyal to them to the bitter end. The next home game is against Calgary and he’s been on the search for an old game worn Jeff Shattler Roughnecks jersey. Now I’m on the hunt for Seals and Rock jerseys for the last two games in April.
Its funny to watch the reactions of fans around us. The season ticket holders behind us are in on the joke. Others look around when he’s celebrating a Riptide goal with some despair. When a team has been around for a while like the Rush have been now, you sometimes have to look for new ways to revitalize that interest in the game. He’s found a unique way to do just that.
Until next time…
Great, posting as usual, Evan. Appreciated.
As always, very insightful…saved me a lot of research…like I have time!