It’s a very strange feeling that the NLL draft has just concluded and yet NLL free agency has yet to start because the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) hasn’t been finalized. This makes it a different scenario entirely for general managers, but perhaps one that will work in their favour. In the past, they’ve had the opportunity to sign free agents and then adjust their draft strategy as necessary based on what their needs were after NLL free agency.
Instead, this year the draft happens first and you can tailor your free agent strategy around what your needs are post-draft, which may be better because drafted players that ultimately make the cut stay with you longer. It’s not so much better or worse, just different.
Many have asked about when I think the CBA will be finalized, and I don’t have the slightest clue. This isn’t an easy CBA to settle. There is very little revenue sharing amongst the owners in the NLL. The largest revenue share is the distribution of luxury taxes for those teams that exceed the salary cap and splitting that money up amongst the teams that adhere to the salary cap.
The problem this causes for a CBA is you have players that are clearly trying to get the best deal they can so they can earn as much as possible and accommodate to as many life needs as they can, mixed with an ownership situation where teams like Buffalo are earning record revenues and several other teams are struggling to survive. You have some teams that would willingly spend double the salary cap if they could, mixed with teams that can’t afford to spend the salary cap that already exists that want to keep the number low so they can compete.
Finding a one-size-fits-all solution to that is not easy. Let’s hope there is a solution within the next month so training camps aren’t delayed and we run into the same problems from 2018 all over again.
With that being said, it’s important to understand the free agency scenarios around the league, because there will be heightened urgency to get deals done whenever the CBA gets finished off.
It’s worth mentioning a brief explainer here. The term “UFA” means Unrestricted Free Agent, and that is essentially the group of players who make up the bulk of NLL free agency. While Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) have some rights, the name is misleading. This article deals with UFAs.
Laundry List in Buffalo
One of the teams with the longest list of exposed UFAs is Buffalo, and it should hardly be surprising given that the team has been together for a while. And if there’s a challenge for any dynasty, it’s keeping the team together.
The list of Bandits from last season that are free agents includes Matt Vinc, Kyle Buchanan, Kiel Matisz, Chase Fraser, Chris Cloutier, Nick Weiss, Matt Spanger, Justin Martin and Paul Dawson. That is a lot of work for Steve Dietrich to finalize once a CBA concludes, but I’m expecting that a number of deals have been verbally agreed to and simply need to be signed once the CBA is finalized.
Vinc is clearly the biggest name on the list. Vinc could easily play another 5 years in the league if he wants to. If he does decide to come back, I can’t see it being anywhere but Buffalo. The question is more of does he come back. The Bandits did select Waukiigan Shognosh with their first round pick. I wouldn’t read too much into that for the upcoming season. Even if Vinc was coming back, the Bandits need to address the future goaltending need they know is coming.
Buchanan is another player that will be a Buffalo or retire situation. He is still playing quite well at 38 years old so there is no need to retire unless his body or his family tell him it’s time.
Nick Weiss would certainly have suitors if he was looking to make a change as would Chase Fraser and Chris Cloutier. Part of the math at the end of the day might come down to who Buffalo can afford to keep and how much in luxury tax they’re willing to pay to keep their dynasty intact.
Or conversely, how much of a discount those players are willing to take to keep the good times rolling.
Exodus in Calgary?
Calgary’s list of UFAs isn’t as long as Buffalo’s, but it’s the big names that are on the list that will likely result in a Roughnecks roster next season that is far different than the one from last season.
At the top of the list is Curtis Dickson who the Roughnecks re-acquired from the Seals a year ago. Dickson could reject the franchise tag so the Roughnecks used their tag on Tyler Pace. Unless old wounds have healed between Dickson and Mike Board, the place to see if Superman lands there this offseason is in Vancouver. Be assured that Curt Malawsky and Dickson have already had that discussion.
Nick Rose is also on the list in Calgary, although his future is far more certain. I will be stunned if Rose isn’t back in a Toronto Rock jersey this winter. He still manages the TRAC. Jamie Dawick didn’t draft a goalie. And guaranteed if there were any issues with Rose not coming back to Toronto for next season, Dawick would have used some of his draft capital to acquire a starting goalie somewhere. Also, Calgary acquired Aden Walsh in the offseason as part of the future considerations package in the Christian Del Bianco trade, so they are set in goal.
Jesse King is also on the UFA list that could reject the franchise tag. Is he another target for Curt Malawsky? Geographically it makes sense for him, but another suitor could be the San Diego Seals, the Colorado Mammoth or even the Las Vegas Desert Dogs (where younger brother Marshal plays). Once again I would be surprised if King stayed in Calgary, but anything is possible.
Denver’s Calling
The Mammoth do have some big name free agents on their list as well. However, I would be surprised if these players left. The four names on the list are Robert Hope, Damon Edwards, Tim Edwards and Jordan Gilles. I think with the Mammoth, they might be looking to make a big splash and land some quality forwards. The aforementioned Dickson and King might find homes in Colorado if the money and situations are aligned correctly.
Headed North?
Georgia doesn’t normally have a free agent list as long as the one they have. John Arlotta typically trades away veteran talent for youth or draft picks. Names on the Swarm’s list include Liam Byrnes, Mike Manley, Brendan Bomberry, John Ranagan, Seth Oakes, Joey Cupido, and most importantly, Jordan MacIntosh, amongst others.
MacIntosh has had plenty of opportunities to leave Georgia in the past if he wanted to, so I don’t see that happening. But a number of these other UFAs are good depth players. Certainly Arlotta needs to do what he can to hold onto as many of these players as possible. But Georgia isn’t an easy market for players to travel to, and once players turn 30, priorities can change, especially with family. If teams in the Ontario/New York State belt have depth needs, we could see players returning closer to home and Arlotta needing to build through the draft once again.
All is Quiet on the Eastern Front
Halifax only has one free agent left to address, and that’s Warren Hill. I don’t see Halifax moving on from Hill and I don’t see Hill getting any major offers to move, so I believe he re-signs. I also don’t see a need for Halifax to go out and get more free agents. There aren’t any major holes to fill outside of inconsistency in goaltending. But that hasn’t stopped Curt Styres from trying to make a major trade. With Vinc and Rose not being realistic options in NLL free agency, Halifax would have to make a move via a trade if it wanted to make a switch to its goaltending situation.
Time to Gamble in Vegas?
The Desert Dogs have yet to make the playoffs in its franchise history and the big question mark as to how Vegas handles NLL free agency is whether they build with youth or try to make a big splash. Their big name free agent forward is Casey Jackson who scored nearly 30 goals last year. Maybe the Desert Dogs re-sign him or they make an enticing offer to a Jesse King to see if they can lure him in.
The Desert Dogs do have some free agent defenders, but it was defence and goaltending that were the concerns last season. By drafting Caleb Khan late in the opening round, the Desert Dogs appear to be looking to address their goaltending issues through experience and competition. If Vegas does go after free agents, it’s most likely to be on defence. The question remains whether they can entice big name UFAs to play in a market that is certainly fun to travel to, but hasn’t seen the on-floor success that is needed to attract big name free agents just yet.
Oshawa or Ottawa or Oshawa?
I would hate to be the first broadcaster to deal with an Oshawa vs Ottawa game. You might want to stick to team nicknames so they and the fans don’t get confused.
Like the past several years in Albany, Glenn Clark didn’t have a long list of free agents to deal with this offseason for the FireWolves. His entire list: Ethan O’Connor. By the same token, since ownership hasn’t changed, I’m not expecting the FireWolves to be big players in the free agent market as they’ll likely stick to their focus on building with youth top of mind.
As for the Black Bears, Reilly O’Connor is on their list of free agents. Jeff Teat with Reilly O’Connor in the lineup was a far better player than Jeff Teat without him. But Ottawa did just make a trade to acquire Sam Firth. What that means for O’Connor, we will have to see. The focus area for the Black Bears in free agency might be to obtain some veteran defenders who can start to limit the onslaught of shots that Zach Higgins faced last season.
Change in the Air in Philly?
The Wings have a number of big name players heading into NLL free agency. That list includes Mitch Jones, Joe Resetarits, Mitch de Snoo, Phil Caputo among others. There is one bit of information that isn’t clear however. The Wings offered the franchise tag to de Snoo back on August 28th, but there is nothing in the league transaction wire stating whether de Snoo accepted or rejected that offer.
Because de Snoo is 33 years old, he is permitted to reject the franchise tag. The reason the Wings would make the franchise tag offer is they can pay de Snoo 25% above league veteran max salary by offering the tag, something no other team in the league can do. But that extra pay does come with extra travel. If the tag was rejected, I am certain teams like the Rock, Black Bears and FireWolves will be making offers.
Mitch Jones is a west coast guy that has been playing in Philly for a while now. Does he want to play closer to home? Does Curt Malawsky have the budget to sign Jones? Resetarits would have also been fielding a number of phone calls pre-draft from teams on the east coast. The big question for Philly is with their ownership situation up in the air, how big of a budget will Paul Day have to try to retain these guys, and if he can’t retain them, where does he turn to next to fill in his roster?
Zeddy Ballgame in Roch
Rochester has already pulled its biggest move in NLL free agency by trading for Zed Williams and then placing the franchise tag on him. Rochester does have some other UFAs on the table, the biggest name being Dan Coates. Coates is now 38 years old and has had injury problems the last several years. Is there one year left in him in Rochester or does another team take a chance on him. If he can stay healthy, he’s a huge pickup for anyone looking at a title run this season.
With the ownership situation now settled in Rochester, it will be interesting to see if the Seneca Nation puts the investment into the team pursue the big names this team needs for a title run.
Rubes Party in SoCal?
The Seals might have one of the shortest UFA lists they’ve had in a while this offseason, especially after they franchise tagged Zach Currier. There are two big names on the list still in Cam Holding and Kyle Rubisch. Holding has worked for the team for many years so a departure would be surprising. Rubisch on the other hand can be a big name splash when NLL free agency begins. He and his family have certainly enjoyed spending time in SoCal the last few years. But with Rubisch now 37 years old, does he want to come closer to home? Does he want another title? Picture a situation where Steve Dietrich manages to get Rubisch for a shot at a 4th straight title. That’s the type of splash that Rubes can make this offseason if he wants it. He is still a top 5 defender in this league despite his age.
The question for the Seals will be whether they continue on the strategy of loading up heavily on free agents in the hope that they’ll finally buy their way to a title, or whether the realization has set in that their free agent strategy hasn’t worked and it’s time to start developing more young players. The status of Austin Staats could also play a role in the Seals’ plans in NLL free agency.
A Boring Drive in the Prairies
The Saskatchewan Rush have just one free agent remaining this offseason in Adam Jay. They managed to sign Frank Scigliano late in the season to an extension. They offered the franchise tag to Robert Church which he accepted. And to nobody’s surprise, they extended Ryan Keenan.
The Rush don’t have any major gaps to fill outside perhaps of a depth RF in case Mike Triolo still isn’t 100% when the season begins. They addressed a few minor depth needs in the draft. I don’t think Derek Keenan does much unless there is something so enticing that he has to take a shot at just like he did with Austin Shanks last offseason.
A Rock Future With Fewer UFAs?
Jamie Dawick has almost always built his team through free agent pickups instead of through the draft, but Dawick has been changing that mode of thinking the last while. And with so many top draft picks at his disposal the last two drafts, the question now becomes where to leave a spot open for a rookie. The Rock’s UFA list includes the likes of Corey Small, Brad Kri and Tom Schreiber, among others. Dawick has stated publicly how much he loves Schreiber, but Schreiber’s late season-ending injury in the PLL may play a role in when and how he is signed. Kri is Dawick’s main target to get under contract, especially considering that Kri wasn’t traded as a rental late last season whereas Rose and de Snoo were. Dawick is clearly going to sign Rose back and he’ll be going after de Snoo again if de Snoo did reject the franchise tag.
Whether Small is signed depends on a few things. First, Dawick did make an opening for CJ Kirst by trading away Brian Cameron recently. He has Sam English coming this season which there is an immediate spot open in the roster if Schreiber is unable to play. But Dawick did multiple left-handed forwards in this draft. And the status of Mark Matthews’ recovery from shoulder surgery is unknown. All of those might play a role in whether or not Small is signed for one more year.
Calgary West
As I mentioned earlier, we could easily see two UFAs in Curtis Dickson and Jesse King headed to the west coast and joining Curt Malawsky and the Vancouver Warriors. There were also the question marks over Christian Del Bianco’s situation when no contract was signed and the Warriors ultimately franchise tagged him on August 28th. But Del Bianco later confirmed that he had verbally agreed to a contract with the Warriors, but they are awaiting the conclusion of the CBA negotiations to sign the deal.
Vancouver still has some big names on its UFA list. Brett Mydske, Kevin Crowley, Ryan Dilks and Keegan Bal all need new deals. I don’t see Dilks, Mydske and Bal going anywhere. Crowley could be a different situation though if the Warriors want to make space for Dickson. I think you could see the Warriors making some key acquisitions in NLL free agency, but the names won’t be a surprise to anyone and have already been mentioned.
Who’s Watching the Mann?
It was hardly a surprise with the Mann Cup being out west this year that the streaming for the event would be a PPV stream. What was shocking was the sticker price, $20/game. Keep this in mind, my main online subscription is Netflix. The cost for that, $7.99/month for the package that runs commercials every 15-30 minutes. The WLA has determined that the price for the Mann Cup, an event just slightly over 2 hours, should be the same as 2.5 months of Netflix. Really?
The WLA has had the short-sightedness for years of continuing on a partnership Play Full Screen where every game is behind a paywall and few tune in. I recall a few years ago when the WLA final went to game 7 and the broadcasters were bragging about 1,000 people watching online. A regular season OJLL game receives 6x as many views. The WLA is missing out on a major opportunity to expand its viewer base and its following by continuing with the PPV model, making it less relevant to those not in the arena.
It’s not like there isn’t a platform available to them to make the switch. BC Sports TV has been using the sponsored free stream model for years. One team executive mentioned that a pretty significant sponsor would have to be obtained for them to stream the games for free. Yet the WLA has known since play resumed after COVID that they would be hosting the Mann Cup this year, so they’ve had plenty of time to secure the sponsors necessary to make this a sponsored free stream. It’s not an excuse, it’s a crutch.
To make matters worse, to see many people that did pay for the PPV having issues seeing the stream they’ve paid for or even not being able to log in at all makes the matters even worse. I have only used PFS once in my life, and it was a terrible experience. When the game I paid for wasn’t working, and I reached out to support, I got no response until two days later. I’m not interested in a refund a few days later because my game didn’t work. I’m interested in having immediate customer service available to fix the issue with the game I was trying to watch. After that, I haven’t bothered with a PFS broadcasted game since.
If the WLA is unwilling to move away from its PPV model, and it has the right to stick with it, then Lacrosse Canada needs to step in and ensure that all of the major championships are sponsored free-stream. We shouldn’t be relying on live Twitter updates to watch a major national championship like this. But at $20/game, I’ll do just that. And I’m far from alone in that assessment.
Until next time…
I’m a little perplexed at “The reason the Wings would make the franchise tag offer is they can pay de Snoo 25% above league veteran max salary by offering the tag, something no other team in the league can do.”
Why can Philly pay 25% above the vet max, but no one else can?
I suppose it’s because it’s a returning player? Similar to how before the new CBA in the NHL, a player could re-sign for 8 years with his team but only 7 on a new one.