2025 Minto Cup Finals Preview: The Champion vs The Challenger

The Orangeville Northmen and Coquitlam Adanacs will square off in game one of the 2025 Minto Cup Finals tonight, marking the sixth time that these two teams will meet for the national championship. 

It marks a rematch of last year’s tournament finals, which saw the Adanacs win the cup on their home floor. Orangeville will look to avenge that loss this year, in what will be a best of three series with the Adanacs. 

The tournament paths are basically opposite from last year. The Northmen advanced to the finals after losing their last game of the round-robin, which is the same thing the Adanacs did last year. Coquitlam, like Orangeville last year, lost their first game of this tournament before cruising the rest of the week. 

The difference obviously is that Orangeville got the extra day off, so they will be better rested than the Adanacs who had to work hard to overcome St. Catharines on Tuesday night. But there is some precedent here, as the last team to play in the semi-final game and win the Minto Cup was… the 2018 Adanacs, who overcame a round-robin loss to the Brampton Excelsiors to eventually win the whole thing. 

There was a major difference there, which was that the tournament was in Calgary and the Adanacs didn’t face much opposition other than the Brampton game. They cruised 11-5 in the semi-final and won their other two round-robin games 16-1 and 12-7. That’s very different from the 14-11 game we saw on Tuesday that took pretty much everything Coquitlam had. When the turnarounds are this short, that added effort and fatigue is important. 

For the Northmen, they have been here several times, and seen this story written in different ways. They have competed in the Minto 12 times now, having won the tournament 7 times. So there is institutional knowledge, but also fresh memories of tournaments that did not go their way. 

With all that being said, let’s check in on some keys to watch in this series. 

My Guy vs Your Guy

This is the key of every box lacrosse series, but will obviously be the most important factor in this series. For Orangeville, the massive Evan Constantopoulos has looked incredible all season and has had a very good week. The only time we really saw a team get to him was in their loss to the St. Catharines, but that was more of a case of the Athletics hitting some great shots. 

The key to watch is that Constantopoulos is nearly impossible to beat on straight ahead shots from the outside, there just isn’t enough to shoot at. The teams that have had success have gotten him moving and found holes in his stance. Given his massive size, almost nothing has gone in the top corners this week, with all the success coming off bouncers or hard shots to the low corners. 

For Coquitlam, Jack Kask didn’t get off to a great start but has been pretty solid from there. St. Catharines scored 11 on him, but that was on 56 shots as the Athletics had a sizable possession advantage. The 2024 Minto MVP was clutch last year and will look to elevate his play again this year. 

A much smaller goaltender, Kask is basically the exact opposite of Constantopoulos. He is incredibly quick and spends a lot of time outside of the goal (which has hurt him at times), but he is elite at throwing the ball and helps the Adanacs get into their offence quickly. Given his size, he has to read shooters, so can get fooled every now and again by deceptive finishers. With now a pretty big book on these Orangeville shooters, that will be a fascinating battle to watch. 

But detailed analysis aside, if one of these guys dramatically outplays the other, it’s game over. I expect both to be excellent. 

Depth Favours the Adanacs

You need offensive stars if you want to win the Minto, but Orangeville is relying on theirs an awful lot. Liam Matthews (9 goals), Trey Deere (7 goals) and Max Kruger (7 goals) have scored a combined 23 goals. The rest of the team has scored a combined 5 goals, meaning the top three have scored 79% of the team’s goals. The Northmen have only had six goal-scorers in the tournament so far. 

To put it another way, Liam Matthews has 22 points, while the Northmen only have 28 goals. If he isn’t involved, there hasn’t been much offence for the Northmen. 

Let’s compare that to the Adanacs (keeping in mind that they have played an extra game), whose three leading scorers are Cody Malawsky (10 goals), Nathan Chalmers (8 goals) and Ryan Colsey (7 goals). The Adanacs have scored a combined 45 goals in the tournament, so the top three were responsible for 55% of the total goals, a considerably lower total than the Northmen. Coquitlam has also received goals from several more players, with 12 goal-scorers. 

There are a few angles to take here. One is that the Northmen’s star players are really operating at a different level right now. Matthews and Deere are incredible in the two-man game and they have carried this team to the Minto finals, while Kruger continues his remarkable rookie season. 

Another is that one of the other players is bound to step up. Dylan Sanderson and Owen Rahn have both yet to find the back of the net and both are capable of filling it on a given night. Meanwhile, Vince Onofrio made his return from injury in the Minto final and looked great against St. Catharines, he could be found money for the Northmen. 

But however you want to spin it, the reality is that Orangeville either needs more bodies to step up, or they need their stars to continue on their torrid pace. As they are currently playing, they will be in trouble if one of the top three has an off night. 

Adanacs Must Clean Up Defensive Mistakes

For Coquitlam, the biggest key is limiting the blown assignments that plagued them in game one against the Northmen. They got caught repeatedly on slip picks and other slick passes in the two-man game, and gave up way too many wide open looks. 

This was uncharacteristic, because the hallmark of Coquitlam as a team is the lack of mistakes they make. Watching them this week, they aim to be a calm, cool group that takes one shift at a time. 

Orangeville’s greatest strength offensively is their continuity, they put a ton of stress on a defence with their variety of unspoken cues and understanding that comes from playing together their entire lives. Coquitlam did not handle it well in game one, and will need to clean it up to have a chance in the finals. 

Don’t Expect Much Transition 

One thing fans shouldn’t expect is much transition. Both of these teams like to play at even strength. 

Orangeville has not gotten a goal from a defender in this tournament, while Coquitlam has gotten just four. That isn’t to say that either team wants to play slowly, they both get up the floor with pace and will take the opportunities given to them. But they both play with a low risk level in transition and are happy to pull it out and let the offensive players do their job. Both also do a very good job of stopping transition against. 

But put a different way, there is a huge premium on transition goals. I expect the scores to be tight all series, so getting an extra goal or two will make a massive difference. 

In big moments, you have to throw out the conventional wisdom sometimes. Fortune favours the bold, and I am curious whether any of the defenders will be more aggressive in an effort to make a momentum changing play for their team. 

Challenger vs Champion. Who Wins?

Most of the article has been spent on numbers and analysis, let’s switch to the other side of sports. This Northmen team has been incredibly resilient this year. 

Coming off a gut-wrenching loss last season, it would have been easy for this year’s team to coast through the regular season or even to lose their concentration completely. The Northmen came back with a dominant regular season, and re-loaded for another look at a title. 

Their playoff road was rockier than most OJLL champions, twice going to six games in their hunt for the Iroquois trophy. They had nights when they scored three or four goals, but they kept pushing and pushing. 

This team doesn’t have the overwhelming firepower of last year’s team, but they are tough and keep coming back for more. 

The Adanacs are champions already, they know what it takes. But the Northmen are hungry to right their wrong from last year. 

In 2025, will hungry dogs run faster? Or will the champion’s mentality prove powerful once more. 

Tune in to find out, it should be a great series.