Random Thoughts: Recapping the Deadline

My random thoughts…

As I sat down on Sunday, trying to get my thoughts together, I made the decision that I’m not writing anything until Monday night.  Hopefully there would be some action at the trade deadline or I needed to come up with something that wasn’t repetitive.  During my lunch hour on Monday, as I was listening to the rumor mills ad with less than an hour to go, it wasn’t looking great.  But I hadn’t given up hope just yet.  In years past, if there was any deadline action, it almost always was sent into the league in the final 30 minutes.  You wouldn’t hear about the trades until the deadline had passed.  And then it happened… the trade we had all wanted to see for nine months finally occurred.  So let’s break this all down.

Del Bianco is a Warrior (Finally)

The Christian Del Bianco saga finally came to an end at the trade deadline when the Roughnecks traded him to Vancouver in exchange for Brayden Laity, Vancouver’s first and second round picks in 2025 and their first round pick in 2026 with future considerations coming from both teams, so there’s more to come in this deal.  When you consider that Laity is the ninth pick of the 2023 draft, its essentially three first round picks and a second.  Expect in the coming days that the Warriors will be offering a 4-5 year contract to Del Bianco to lock him in and recoup the investment they’ve made.

Why did this deal finally comes into place? At the end of the day, Mike Board still got a huge return for Del Bianco.  Perhaps not as huge as he had hoped, but it’s a great return.  But there’s something else to consider.  If Board had kept Del Bianco until the summer, he ran a considerable risk regarding the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) that is currently being negotiated between the NLL and NLLPA.

The NLLPA is quite upset about the unintended consequence of the current CBA in which a player like Del Bianco could become a UFA after playing 8 years, and then be franchised continuously until he turned 33.  Del Bianco started playing in the NLL at the age of 19, hence why he’s a UFA at such a young age.  When the 8 years of service was negotiated, it wasn’t highly considered that a player could be franchised for five straight years.

Assuming a new CBA is signed this summer, it likely will change the rules regarding franchising, either limiting it to a period of time or eliminating it altogether.  Board would run the risk of losing significant value on Del Bianco or losing him altogether if he had held onto him until the summer.  If you don’t think this is a concern to some GM’s, simply read Vegas’ social media post from Shawn Williams on why they departed with James Barclay.

Statement from Head Coach & General Manager, Shawn Williams pic.twitter.com/cnJ6u1NFnx

— Las Vegas Desert Dogs (@vegasdesertdogs) March 10, 2025

But for now, let’s celebrate that Del Bianco is back in the league and his couch can get some much needed rest.

Vancouver may have lost a young prospect and three draft picks for Del Bianco, but they quickly got a picks back in a four way deal involving Albany, Ottawa and Buffalo.  The trade might be a bit confusing so its easier to break it down into its parts.

Vancouver gives up Johnathan Peshko and two fourth round picks in 2026 and 2028 for a 2026 first and second round pick from Ottawa and a 2028 second round pick from Buffalo.

Albany gives up Travis Longboat, a 2026 first round pick and a 2026 fourth round pick for Peshko.

Buffalo gives up Sam La Roue, a 2026 second round pick and a 2028 second round pick for Ron John, Kiel Matisz, a 2025 third round pick from Ottawa and a 2028 fourth round pick from Vancouver.

Ottawa gives up John, Matisz, and their first and second round picks in 2026 and a 2025 third round pick for La Roue, Longboat, a 2026 first and fourth from Albany, a 2026 second from Buffalo and a 2026 fourth from Vancouver.

To look at this further, Vancouver is recouping some of their lost picks, especially the 2026 first rounder, for Peshko, which is a pretty decent deal, dependent upon where that first round pick lands in 2026 from Ottawa.

Albany paid a fairly high price from Peshko, especially given they traded away their 1^st round pick in 2026.  That could be a very high pick if Albany doesn’t turn things around next year.

Buffalo picks up a crucial defender in John and a veteran forward in Matisz for a championship run this year for a minimal price.  Matisz is a UFA that can reject the franchise tag this offseason, but John isn’t a free agent for several years.

To simplify the massive trade for Ottawa, they essentially swapped first round picks in 2026, and I’m not too concerned about the 4^th round picks they received, so in simpler terms, this is John and Matisz for La Roue, Longboat and a 2^nd.  They pick up a much younger forward in Longboat and a younger defender in La Roue, but have to give up the big body of John out the back door to get younger.  Given Ottawa’s offensive struggles, this likely helps.

In a smaller trade, San Diego picked up California native Marquez White from Bufalo for a second round pick in 2026 and a conditional second round pick in 2028, the condition being that if White doesn’t play for San Diego in 2025-26, the pick becomes a 4^th round pick.  The trade gets Buffalo some of its draft capital back it lost in the previous trade and it’s a good return for someone they picked up in the third round last year.  San Diego gets a local product with a better chance of staying with the team.

Then there was the trade between San Diego and Vegas in which James Barclay was sent to the Seals in exchange for Justin Sykes and a 2026 second round pick.  In a press release, Shawn Williams expressed concerns about Barclay’s UFA status at the end of the year and other off-field issues.  My best guess here is that he’s referring to potential changes to franchising players as Barclay would have been the only candidate Vegas could franchise this offseason.  If Vegas couldn’t re-sign Barclay, then getting a second rounder and a prospect isn’t a bad return for what becomes a rental player.  And once again, Vegas could re-sign Barclay in the offseason.  San Diego gets a good shot blocker out of this deal at a time they’re facing injury concerns.

Now that the trade deadline has passed, the next deadline teams face is the street free agent deadline.  Teams are able to add any player currently not under contract, or any player that gets released in the meantime, up until April 5^th.

Rush Win in the Deep South

The Rush have never had good luck playing in Georgia.  Its not overly surprising though as it’s the longest flight of the season for their players living in BC.  And without Robert Church, who I want to congratulate on the birth of his child, this wasn’t going to be an easy game for an offense that struggled against Buffalo a week earlier.

The Swarm got out to an early 4-1 lead and you may have thought, not again.  The Rush were going to need another defensive and goaltending effort in the second half like they have received several times this year to catch up.  But then the defense got things in order, keeping Georgia to the outside most of the night, limiting transition opportunities from that point forward, and the Swarm scored just once in the next 27 minutes.  This gave the Rush the time they needed to eventually take the lead.

It was a quiet final 12 minutes on the scoresheet, but far from quiet on the floor.  Tied at 7, Josh Zawada, who has only seen limited playing time whenever a forward is out of the lineup, scored the game winner from his opposite side with just under five minutes remaining.  But Frank Scigliano has started to make his case for goaltender of the year. His stance in the last 2:35 of the game with the Rush short handed, ultimately brought the win home for the Rush.

Statiscally for goaltenders, Scigliano dominates the top now.  A 9.23 GAA, which is a measurement of success, but it can also be a measurement of the defense that’s playing for you, leads the league amongst starters.  It’s the other two stats that are more impressive.  A league leading 0.805 save percentage amongst starters, and the key statistic (thanks Ty Merrow for calculating this every week), a GSAA of 13.36.

To put the GSAA into perspective, Scigliano has saved 13.36 more goals than the average goaltender in the league (currently just slightly better than Matt Vinc).  That’s just a hair over 1 additional goal saved per game compared to Vinc.  The Rush have three one-goal wins this season.  It’s a much different conversation about this team at 7-6 than it is at 10-3.

The other thing to look at with this defence and goaltending though is their ability to shut down the opponent’s biggest weapon.  Two weeks ago, Dhane Smith was held goalless.  This week, it was Lyle Thompson.  That’s impressive to accomplish that once, let alone in back-to-back weeks.

Scigliano wasn’t in my top 3 in the mid-season awards, likely because of missing two games for the birth of his daughter, but he would be today.  The question I still have, and Merrow brought it up in the Rush post-game show, is whether Frank can end the season better than he has in years past.  Only time will tell.

The win was critical for the Rush.  Not only did they beat Georgia and are now 2.5 games clear of the Swarm, Colorado and Halifax for 2^nd place, but they will hold the tiebreak on the Swarm in the event of a two-way tie at the end of the season.  Next week, a battle just as crucial.  A win and the Rush are 3.5 games ahead of Halifax, with the Thunderbirds having five games remaining and not holding the tiebreak.  Conversely, a Thunderbirds win brings them to within 1.5 games of the Rush, with a game in hand, and a messy tiebreak situation.

Just because I need to warm up for the playoff scenario articles in less than a month, let’s break this down.  If the Thunderbirds win this weekend and were to be in a two-way tie with the Rush at the end of the season, the first tiebreak is head-to-head results, which would be 1-1.  We then have to look at results against teams played an equal number of times.  I’m not a fan of this tiebreak.  It’s a randomizer as to which games count and which ones don’t.  But let’s see how that breaks down.

There are six teams that the Thunderbirds and Rush play an equal number of times.  Both teams beat Vancouver and Vegas.  The Rush beat San Diego and Georgia and Halifax plays them later on.  The Rush lost to Buffalo and Halifax plays them later on.  Both teams played Rochester twice.  The Rush won both of those games and Halifax split.  The Rush are 6-1 in that tiebreak and Halifax is 3-1 with three games to play.  Halifax would have to sweep those three games.  Because this assumes a Thunderbirds win this weekend, which would have to be by one or more, Halifax would likely have the next level of the tiebreak, head-to-head goals (Rush won the first game 9-8 in OT).  Even with a one-goal victory, Halifax likely has the strength of victory tiebreak with the wins we assume they need to get here.

The Thunderbirds likely need to get ahead of the Rush in the standings, or go on a major win streak which includes Saskatchewan, San Diego, Georgia and Buffalo just to get that tiebreak, or hope to drag a third team into that tiebreak to win it.  The Rush’s tiebreak situation with Colorado won’t be settled until their two games against each other on March 29^th and April 13^th.  Needless to say, the Rush are close to locking down the #2 seed, and a win this weekend will get them to the brink of having home floor advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

One other question that was asked of me was why the Rush and the Thunderbirds didn’t get involved in the trade deadline.  While I won’t speculate on any rumored trades, the overall consensus was that the asking price for most rental players was simply too high.  Keep in mind, only one team can win the cup, and if you don’t win the cup, was the price paid for the rental player worth it?

Saskatchewan in particular is a team that can ill afford to trade away draft picks.  Its not to say they should never trade them away, but they shouldn’t do it too often.  The Rush’ title run about a decade ago was made on the backs of acquiring draft picks and drafting very well.  But Saskatchewan has another issue.  Playing for Saskatchewan isn’t easy unless you have the flexibility to live in market.  Even for home games you’re looking at a 2-3 hour flight for players living in BC and Ontario.  When the free agency years arrive, and priorities shift to your family and your career, most players eventually opt to sign elsewhere.

Because of this, its critical for the Rush to hold onto draft picks, build the team off your youth, while still doing whatever you can to hold onto whichever free agents you can.

Any Given Weekend

Its in my nature to look ahead, try to project odds that certain teams will beat other teams.  It shouldn’t be surprising, because that’s my job as well.  Get current data, make educated projections about future results from that data.

But in sports, just like in business, unexpected things happen that alter those projections.  Albany defeating Philly maybe wasn’t the greatest example here since Albany beat them two weeks prior, but Philly’s slide from 5-2 to 5-7 is astonishing.  I still think that keeping Nick Damude over Zach Higgins will pay dividends for them in the long-term future, but it isn’t paying off immediately.  But Damude’s numbers are definitely impacted by Philly’s lack of defensive prowess, so its only a guess as to what Higgins could have done there this season.  Philly is only one game out of a playoff spot, but with 5 straight losses, including two to Albany, you have to project that their odds of making the playoffs are slim.

Toronto’s win over Halifax was a huge shock given the fire sale that Toronto went through two weeks ago.  They’re still fighting for respectability given everything that happened this week.  And for Halifax, they could have been in a near tie with the Rush with a win this weekend.  Now they need a win just to stay within striking range.

Then there’s Calgary vs Buffalo, with an even more shocking blowout win by the Roughnecks.  Nick Rose got that chip off his shoulder and got a big win against the Bandits, even if it took a change in scenery to get it.  That unexpected win puts Calgary a half game out of 3^rd place instead of being tied for the last playoff spot.  The loss also brings Buffalo to within striking range of losing first place to the Rush, although the Rush need a 2-game swing to get there with five games remaining.

But the difference between third place and tenth is just two games.  And yes, as this mess continues to develop, the playoff scenario articles will just get longer and longer.

Until next time…