The 2024 OJLL Finals begin Wednesday night at Tony Rose arena. The series will pit the top ranked Orangeville Northmen against the third ranked Mimico Mountaineers.
These two teams split their regular season series this year, with the road team winning in each game. Mimico won at Tony Rose on May 31 by a score of 8-6, while the Northmen won by the same score at Mimico Arena on June 27th.
Mimico has seen a balanced scoring attack during the playoffs. Four Mountaineer players have scored 10 or more goals in the playoffs so far. Isaiah Moran-Weekes has been outstanding and leads with 13 goals, while Lucas Dudemaine, and Finn Thomson have 12 each, and Justin Tavares has 10.
The Northmen have been balanced as well, but have leaned heavily on the play of Joey Spallina, who is having one of the best statistical playoff runs in recent memory. After Spallina, the northmen have gotten 31 points from Trey Deere (7 goals, 24 assists) and Liam Matthews (13 goals, 18 assists).
There are several keys to discuss with this series, let’s get into the most important ones. It is worth noting that some of these are more important for Mimico. Orangeville has been dominant throughout the playoffs and is likely considered the favourite by most fans. The biggest key for Orangeville is to keep doing what they’re doing.
Here are the keys to the 2024 OJLL Finals.
Fast Starts
To put that dominance into perspective, the Northmen have only trailed for 21 minutes and 28 seconds. They have played 360 minutes of playoff lacrosse.
One of the keys to Orangeville’s success has been their ability to get out to fast starts. This is especially true at Tony Rose, and has been especially true in the first game of their first two series. Against Beaches and St. Catharines, they got out to fast starts and took control of the series from the very jump.
The same has not been true of Mimico, who have relied several times on second and third period comebacks, including in the closeout game against the Peterborough Lakers.
With the way that Connor O’Toole and the Northmen defence have been playing, they have proven to be exceptionally difficult to come back on. That is combined with the fact that the early starts have rattled opponents and allowed the fans at Tony Rose to become energized and impact the game. Mimico needs to do what they can to avoid this early momentum rush.
It’s important both for morale and for the realities of scoring against this team.
Defensive Transition
Both teams have won the battle of transition play throughout the playoffs. Orangeville gets a lot of their scoring on breakaways and single guys flying up the floor. The furthest man ahead is often Aiden Long, who has been one of the best players in the playoffs.
Long scored against St. Cartharines in the closeout game three, and scored twice against Beaches. His goals are often breakaways and if opponents are not careful, he can burn you.
In most scenarios though, the Northmen defenders are looking to sprint to the bench and they are trying to get the ball up the floor to set picks and seals for their offensive players.
Mimico is skipping the step of running to the bench, instead opting to fly up the floor with two, three, and four players. It is not an uncommon sight even for all five Mountaineers to go up the floor together.
Everyone on the back-end has the green light to shoot and they seem to catch defences off-guard with their willingness to press on in non-obvious transition opportunities. The universal sign to slow it down in box lacrosse is the coaching staff holding both hands in the air. That sign doesn’t come often from Dean George.
Here is an example of Tavares scoring off the face off. Again, most teams are telling their guys to pull the ball out here. Mimico is pushing into the gaps.
The result is that Mimico will often have two or even three players behind the defence. Justin Tavares is the obvious first-star of this strategy, scoring a borderline remarkable 7 goals in the series against Peterborough. Angus Macdonell will get involved as well, as will Jordan Vincent and others.
Here is a good example, where Tavares, Owen Hobbs, and Aaron Toguri all move up the floor. Mimico ends up basically a 3-0. Orangeville must avoid these.
Normally, I would write that whoever wins this battle will have the advantage. But this feels more important for the Mountaineers. The Northmen have proven to be very difficult in the 5v5, especially on defence. Mimico has to win between the lines.
Connor O’Toole and Shot Volume
I wrote about O’Toole earlier this week, but his play has been and will continue to be the most important factor for the Northmen. He has just been so solid throughout the playoffs.
The most important factor for Mimico other than transition goals has been their shot volume. They have an excellent ability to pick up loose balls and earn shot clock resets. Obviously, the Northmen defence can have some control over this and will need to be solid in the corners. But there is a strong likelihood that O’Toole is going to see some rubber in this series.
Mimico routinely puts 60 shots on target. The most the Northmen have allowed is 55 to the Beaches. St. Catharines never managed more than 44.
The flipside of the coin is that at times, Mimico’s production is not necessarily correlated to their shots. In other words, they have a tendency to be snake bit.
So this is a major key. O’Toole will be tested more than he has in the first two rounds. But if he can continue his strong play, the Northmen will be in business.
Can Anyone Win at Tony Rose?
Since 2018, the Ontario Champion has either been the Orangeville Northmen, or beaten the Northmen on route to the title. In fact, in the pointstreak era (from summer 2008 to now), the Ontario champion has either been Orangeville or beaten Orangeville more often (ten times), than not (four times).
In other words, the title usually goes through Tony Rose. The summer of 2024 is no different.
The Northmen only lost twice in their own barn this year, once in the aforementioned loss to Mimico and the other was at the hands of the Toronto Beaches (a game that was eventually switched to a win-by-forfeit).
So far in the playoffs, they have won their four home games by a combined 27 goals.
Mimico has been great at home as well, with a plus 23 differential at the Drummond bowl. But the path to a championship won’t require Orangeville to win on the road.
It should be a good one Wednesday. I’ll be on the call for the OJLL Finals at 8 PM. If you can’t get there in person, we will have it on Youtube.