Schemenauer’s Random Thoughts: Playoff Scenarios for Every Team That’s Still Alive

My random thoughts…

We knew going into week 20 that we could have a situation in the NLL where everything was decided and we could have a situation of pure chaos.  What we ended up with was something in the middle, where Buffalo and Halifax qualified, Calgary and Colorado have been eliminated, first and second place have been decided, and five teams are still battling it out for the last two spots in the playoffs.

While some teams have qualified for the playoffs, they still have important games to play this weekend as playoff positioning is on the line.  If you’re a team trying to get into the playoffs, you’ll be happy with the #8 seed because you’re still alive.  For teams that have qualified for the playoffs, they likely want to avoid finishing 7^th or 8^th and having to play Toronto or San Diego in their opening game.

With that, let’s get into it and where every team stands with one week to go.

First, a look at the individual head to head scenarios for each team. Read left to right to track your favourite team.

Toronto Rock (14-3)

The Rock have clinched 1^st place overall and will have home floor advantage throughout the playoffs.  They’ll open the playoffs against the #8 seed and have the winner of the #4 and #5 game in their side of the playoff bracket.

San Diego Seals (12-5)

San Diego has finished in 2^nd place and await the #7 seed in the second round of the playoffs.  Their first-round playoff game will be on Saturday, April 27^th.

Albany Firewolves (10-7)

Its shocking to think that the Firewolves haven’t won a game since March 8^th.  As one analyst put it to me, they’re following the same path Rochester did last season.

Despite this massive losing streak, Albany is in the playoffs and still has a really good chance of hosting a first-round playoff game.  Their scenarios are:

• Will finish 3^rd overall (59% chance) with a win; or
  • If Albany, Georgia, Buffalo and Halifax all end up at 10-8; or
  • If Albany, Georgia, Buffalo, Halifax and Panther City all lose
• Will finish 4^th (22% chance) with a loss; and
  • A four-way tie at 10-8 involving Georgia, Buffalo and Panther City; or
  • A Georgia win, a Buffalo loss and a Panther City loss; or
  • A Buffalo win, a Georgia loss and a Panther City loss.
• Will finish 5^th (13% chance) with a loss; and
  • A Georgia win, a Buffalo win and a Panther city loss; or
  • A Buffalo win, a Panther City win a Georgia loss and a Halifax loss
• Will finish 6^th (6% chance) with a loss and Georgia, Buffalo and Panther City all winning

Albany cannot finish worse than 6^th.

Georgia Swarm (10-7)

Oddly enough, while Georgia’s odds to finish 3^rd are worse than Albany’s, Georgia’s odds of hosting a first-round playoff game are nearly identical, and there’s a very slim (3%) chance they can fall to 6^th place.

• Will finish 3^rd with a win and an Albany loss (25% chance).
• Will finish 4^th (47% chance) with:
  • A win and an Albany win; or
  • A loss, an Albany win and a Buffalo loss; or
  • A 5-way tie at 10-8; or
  • If Georgia, Albany, Buffalo and Panther City all lose.
• Will finish 5^th (25% chance) with:
  • A loss, an Albany win and a Buffalo win; or
  • A 4-way tie at 10-8 involving Albany, Panther City and Halifax; or
  • Georgia, Albany and Panther City all lose and Buffalo wins
• Will finish 6^th in one scenario (3% chance) if Georgia, Albany and Halifax all lose, and Buffalo and Panther City win.

Buffalo Bandits (10-7)

One of the questions that has been posed by many is whether we could see a Buffalo vs Toronto final.  Since we know Toronto will be the #1 seed, that means that Buffalo has to finish in 3^rd, 6^th or 7^th for that to have a chance.  The odds are exactly 50/50.  There’s exactly as many scenarios that put the Bandits in 3^rd, 6^th and 7^th as there are scenarios that put them in 4^th or 5^th.

Buffalo’s main issue when it comes to seeding is that of all the teams that can be at 10 or 11 wins, Buffalo lost the season series to every last team.  Because of that, a Buffalo win means they can’t finish any worse than 5^th, but a Buffalo loss means they can’t finish better than 5^th.  Buffalo’s scenarios are:

• Will finish 3^rd (12.5% chance) with a win and Georgia and Albany both losing
• Will finish 4^th (25% chance) with a win and one, but not both Georgia and Albany win.
• Will finish 5^th (25% chance) with:
  • If Buffalo, Georgia and Albany all win; or
  • A loss and Panther City and Halifax both lose
• Will finish 6^th (25% chance) with a loss and one, but not both Panther City or Halifax wins.
• Will finish 7^th (12.5% chance) with a loss and both Panther City and Halifax win.

One advantage that Buffalo may have this weekend is they are not only playing a Las Vegas team that is out of the playoffs, they’ll be doing so in front of a large contingent of their own fans that are making the trip to Vegas to watch.  Based on the ticket sales reported by Scott Loeffler, the Buffalo contingent will be similar in size to that of the Saskatchewan Rush fan base that attended the game in Vegas a year ago.

Between this, the 19,000 plus at Banditland this past weekend and a nice winning streak developing, things are really looking up for the Bandits, and it’s a matchup that a lot of teams won’t want to see in the opening round.

Halifax Thunderbirds (9-8)

Halifax has an interesting situation in that even though they are one game ahead of Vancouver, Saskatchewan and New York, they hold a good enough tiebreak in each situation that they will finish at worst in 8^th place.  By the same token, because they are a game behind both Albany and Georgia and lost to both of them, Halifax can’t finish any better than 5^th.

If Halifax wins, they will finish between 5^th and 7^th.

• They finish 5^th with a win a Buffalo loss, and they avoid a 5-way tie at 10-8 or a 4-way tie with Albany, Buffalo and Panther City
• They finish 7^th with a win, Buffalo and Panther City both win and Albany loses (Georgia result is irrelevant)
• All other scenarios, Halifax finishes 6^th with a win.

With a loss, Halifax will finish between 6^th and 8^th.  They finish in 6^th in most circumstances with a loss and a Panther City loss.  The 8^th place scenario involves a Halifax, Saskatchewan and Vancouver loss and a Panther City and New York win.   

Panther City Lacrosse Club (9-8)

Unlike Halifax, there are a few scenarios where Panther City doesn’t make the playoffs at 9-9, but they are 94% to make the playoffs.  Let’s start with their scenarios to make the playoffs:

Panther City are in the playoffs, except for the following:

• Panther City loss + Halifax loss + Saskatchewan win + Vancouver win + New York loss; or
• Panther City loss + Halifax loss + Saskatchewan win + Vancouver loss + New York win

To think about it the other direction, Panther City is in the playoffs with:

• A win; or
• A Halifax win; or
• A Saskatchewan loss; or
• If New York and Vancouver both win or they both lose

Unlike Halifax, because Panther City has tiebreakers on teams above them, they can host a playoff game, and in fact in one case, can finish 3^rd.

• Will finish 3^rd (3% chance) with a win, and Albany, Georgia, Buffalo and Halifax all losing.
• Will finish 4^th (6% chance) with a win, Albany and Halifax lose, and one, but not both Georgia and Buffalo lose.

With a win, Panther City can’t finish worse than 7th, but with a loss can’t finish better than 7^th.  They have a 19% chance of finishing 5^th and a 16% chance of finishing 6^th.

If the rare event of a Panther City home game occurs, they would be smart on playing it on the Sunday afternoon, where they’ve had home success as of late.

Vancouver Warriors (8-9)

Vancouver’s odds to make the playoffs are 45.3%.  Vancouver does have a remote shot at making the playoffs with a loss.  But it’s remote.  They’re far better off to get the win as they are in the playoffs in 81% of scenarios where they win.  It will be interesting to see what San Diego team they play as the Seals could easily rest players before the playoffs.

Oddly enough a Halifax loss really helps Vancouver’s chances because not only did Vancouver beat Halifax this season, Saskatchewan lost to Halifax twice, so a 9-9 Halifax is a major benefit.

Vancouver’s final game is on Friday night, which might be advantageous because they only need to worry about what they can do and then let the dominoes fall as they may.  Here are Vancouver’s scenarios:

• A Vancouver win against San Diego and a Halifax loss to Colorado, the Warriors are in the playoffs.
• With a win against San Diego, and a Halifax win, Vancouver needs to avoid the three following scenarios:
  • A Saskatchewan win, a Panther City win and a New York loss
  • A Saskatchewan win and a Panther City loss (New York’s result does not matter if the first two happen).
• With a loss to San Diego, the Warriors need Saskatchewan, New York and Calgary to lose, and Rochester to lose at least once to make the playoffs.  In this scenario, Vancouver finishes 8^th.

Vancouver cannot finish higher than 7^th, but could be heading back down to San Diego on consecutive weeks if they do finish 7^th.

Saskatchewan Rush (8-10)

Panther City’s win on Sunday had a significant negative effect on Saskatchewan’s playoff hopes.  Saskatchewan only has a season series advantage on Panther City and Panther City’s win reduces the odds that Saskatchewan can have Panther City along in a tiebreak scenario.  The one team that can play spoiler to Saskatchewan’s hopes, even though they are already in the playoffs, is Halifax.  A Halifax loss keeps Halifax at 9-9, and in a 9-9 tiebreak, having lost to Halifax twice this season, Saskatchewan would be in a world of trouble.

One fan questioned why Saskatchewan is listed behind Vancouver in the standings when they split the season series and Saskatchewan has a better goal differential in those two games.  The issue is that the Riptide are also at 8-10.  The goal differential is irrelevant because we never get that low down in the tiebreak with Saskatchewan and Vancouver.  If the tie was just between Saskatchewan and Vancouver, Saskatchewan is in the playoffs because in the games against common opponents played the same number of teams, Saskatchewan is 4-3 and Vancouver is 3-4. 

However, once New York is also in that tiebreak, Vancouver’s head-to-head against the three teams is 2-1 and Saskatchewan’s is 2-2.  That’s why Saskatchewan is behind Vancouver.  That wouldn’t have been the case if Panther City had lost on Sunday because Panther City also joining an 8-9 tiebreak benefits Saskatchewan.

Saskatchewan’s scenarios for getting into the playoffs are the most complex and the only thing in their control is to first beat Toronto.  After that, it’s a case of who else wins or loses.  Thanks to Graeme Perrow for figuring this out in language that is easier than I could find, even though its still not simple.

Saskatchewan’s playoff scenarios are:

• Saskatchewan must beat Toronto to stay alive.  Saskatchewan cannot make the playoffs at 8-10.
• On top of Saskatchewan beating Toronto, they need one of the following pairs of events to happen:
  • San Diego beats Vancouver & Albany beats New York
  • San Diego beats Vancouver & Calgary beats Panther City
  • Halifax beats Colorado & Albany beats New York
  • Halifax beats Colorado & Calgary beats Panther City
  • Albany beats New York & Calgary beats Panther City
• Saskatchewan cannot finish better than 7^th place.  If they make the playoffs, their first-round opponent would be Toronto or San Diego (coincidently the two teams they had to beat in the last two weeks of the season just to make the playoffs).

Perhaps Saskatchewan will once again benefit playing a Toronto opponent that has nothing to play for and could potentially be resting players this time ahead of the playoffs.  When you look at what needs to happen in those pairs, only one of those pairs, Halifax and Albany winning, has teams winning with something to play for this weekend outside of pride.

New York Riptide (8-10)

New York’s loss to Vancouver really puts them in a bind because of that critical tiebreaker.  That’s why their odds of making the playoffs are only 26.6%.  When you look at the teams around them, they lost the season series to Halifax, Panther City and Vancouver, and split with Saskatchewan.  New York make the playoffs under the following circumstances:

• A win combined with a Saskatchewan and Vancouver loss.
• A 2-way tie at 9-9 with Saskatchewan
• A 3-way tie at 9-9 with Halifax and Saskatchewan
• A 4-way tie at 9-9 with Halifax, Panther City and Saskatchewan
• A loss + Saskatchewan and Vancouver lose + Calgary wins + Rochester loses at least once

The best that New York can finish is in 7^th place, which is the 4-way tie at 9-9 with Halifax, Panther City and Saskatchewan listed above.  If New York makes the playoffs, its likely as the 8^th seed.

Calgary Roughnecks (7-10)

Calgary has been eliminated from the playoffs with their loss to Buffalo and Panther City’s win over Albany this past weekend.  While Calgary is only one game behind Saskatchewan, Vancouver and New York, the problem is that in the best-case scenario, only one 8-10 team can make the playoffs, and in no tiebreak situation with those three, and even possibly Rochester, is Calgary in first place in that tiebreak.

Calgary’s final game does have ramifications for other teams, and whether Panther City makes the playoffs, and in a few instances, the scenarios in 8-10 tiebreaks.

Rochester Knighthawks (6-10)

Even though Rochester’s record is worse than Calgary’s, because they have two games remaining this weekend and their tiebreak situation is far better, Rochester is still alive going into week 21.  But its going to be tough.  Here’s the simplicity of Rochester’s situation:

• Must win both remaining games in week 21, plus Saskatchewan, Vancouver and New York must all lose.
• If Rochester makes the playoffs, they can only finish 8^th.

The 8-10’s

Here’s a simple formula to follow if Vancouver, Saskatchewan and New York all lose, and 8-10 is good enough to get into the playoffs:

• Vancouver + Saskatchewan + New York at 8-10 = Vancouver is in
• Vancouver + Saskatchewan + New York + Calgary at 8-10 = New York is in
• Vancouver + Saskatchewan + New York + Rochester (Calgary optional) at 8-10 = Rochester is in.

Holding onto Draft Picks

In any North American professional sport, its critical to restock your team every year with draft picks.  Too often these are traded away for an immediate push to be better, often for a short period of time.  More often than not, the beneficiary is the one receiving the draft picks.  We saw in the 2010’s how Derek Keenan stockpiled draft picks and won three championships.  We also saw the Stealth trade away almost every first round pick they had and watched the team spiral.

Its rare that a team can stay competitive for any length of time without having those draft picks.  Toronto is a rare exception in that they have the advantage of obtaining UFA’s that want to play closer to home, but even Toronto’s recent first and second round picks have sparked the team.

When you look at this September’s draft, there’s a glaring problem.  If the regular season ended today, the draft order for the top four picks would be:

1. Philadelphia (from Colorado, via New York)
2. Toronto (from Vegas)
3. Georgia (From Philadelphia via Rochester)
4. Buffalo (from Rochester)

Is amazing that all four picks were traded, let alone two of them being traded twice.

What did the other teams receive in return?

Colorado acquired Tyson Gibson for what could now be the #1 pick, plus Ron John and Tyler Digby back in March of 2022.  New York then recently dealt that pick to Philadelphia in the Taggart Clark trade.  

Toronto acquired this first round pick and Vegas’ 1^st round pick last year soon after the expansion draft for Rob Hellyer.

Philadelphia originally acquired Holden Cattoni and a 6^th round pick from Rochester this past summer for Hunter Lemieux, a 4^th round pick last year and this first round pick.  Rochester then turned this first-round pick around along with a conditional 1^st round compensatory pick in 2024 or 2025 for Ryan Lanchbury.

As for Buffalo, they traded their first-round pick at #15 in the 2023 draft for this year’s first round pick from Rochester.  Rochester used that pick last year to select Graydon Hogg.  Hogg will make his NLL debut next season after going back to the University of Albany for his final year of eligibility.

In total, seven first round picks for this upcoming September have been traded, and Buffalo and Georgia hold three picks each.  An amazing 12 second round picks have been traded, and Saskatchewan holds three of them.

There is never a sure thing when it comes to a draft pick, but there’s also no sure thing when it comes to a veteran’s ability to maintain or improve his abilities once a trade is complete.  There was a lull in the number of high round draft picks being traded about 5 years ago when Derek Keenan and John Arlotta were winning titles through stockpiling picks.  Now it seems we are back to the days where picks don’t mean as much as they did five years ago.

For a complete list of every scenario, check out the spreadsheet here.

Until next time…